261
FXUS63 KILX 041854
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
154 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT: THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (70%)
FOR A HARD FREEZE (28DEGF OR COLDER) ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PROTECT
SENSITIVE EARLY-SEASON VEGETATION.
- RETURNING RAIN CHANCES: A PASSING SYSTEM WILL BRING A 30% TO
40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOW DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
COOL DOWN AND DRY SPELL
A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON, EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE RECENT PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
NOW ADVECTING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TONIGHT, SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE,
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S.
FREEZE POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1035+ MB, WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
REINFORCING OUR STRETCH OF DRY AND COLDER WEATHER. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THIS PERIOD ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE LREF PROBABILITY FOR A HARD FREEZE
(28DEGF OR COLDER) IS HIGHEST, AROUND 70% OR GREATER, ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH, NEAR THE BEARDSTOWN
TO CASEY LINE, THE CHANCE IS AROUND 20-30%. RESIDENTS WITH
SENSITIVE EARLY-SEASON VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE
MEASURES.
MIDWEEK WARM-UP AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND TURN INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
STAYING IN THE 50S.
A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT PRECEDING THIS LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE (30%) FOR PRECIPITATION. BETTER
CHANCES (40%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MATERIALIZE
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. EARLY ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BE TOO BRIEF TO
ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50°F. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GREATLY MITIGATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
REGION, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH EXACT LOCATIONS STILL
NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY AROUND
18Z, WHILE IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT SOME OF THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT/SCATTER BACK TO VFR THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE,
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT GUSTS PRIMARILY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF SOME AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...DEUBELBEISS
DISCUSSION...DEUBELBEISS
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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