925
FXUS63 KILX 131935
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S, WITH MID 80S LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, OCCASIONALLY REACHING 25-35
MPH, WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WARM PERIOD THIS WEEK.
- THIS WEEK WILL BE RIDDLED WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CURRENTLY EXHIBIT THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY (15-30%) OF SEVERE WEATHER.
- THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIVE RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH OUR MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTING
A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-72.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE HAS SCATTERED
CONVECTION NE OF I-74, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NE OF
PONTIAC WITH HAIL WHERE UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MUCAPES OVER 2000
J/KG) AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR
VALUES. SPC DAY 1 UPDATE HAS MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FROM I-72
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL, THOUGH THE BETTER
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED NE OF CWA AT MID
AFTERNOON. STILL COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE CELLS NORTH OF I-74 NEXT FEW HOURS FOR MAINLY HAIL
CHANCES. LATEST CAMS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION OVER CWA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL DROP DOWN FROM WI AND NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHERN
CWA DURING TUE EVENING AND INTO MORE OF CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL RISK
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT,
WITH SLIGHT RISK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-72 AND ENHANCED RISK FAR
NORTHERN CWA NORTH OF A GALESBURG TO HENRY LINE. AREAS NORTH OF
PEORIA ARE OUTLOOK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LARGER HAIL 2
INCH OR BIGGER AND EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADOES. THE 10% OR HIGHER
RISK OF TORNADOES (EF2 OR STRONGER) JUST JUST NORTH OF KNOX AND
STARK COUNTIES. VERY WARM HIGHS 82-87F ON TUE WITH MOIST
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND BREEZY SSW TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 30
MPH. WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS IN UPPER 80S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS TUE AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS NW OF IL MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE WED
AFTERNOON AND BRINGS THE COLD FRONT SE INTO CENTRAL IL DURING
WED NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. SPC
DAY3 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE SLIGHT RISK NW OF THE IL RIVER.
HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S, WITH MID 80S FAR SE IL BY
LAWRENCEVILLE.
MODELS DIFFER WITH CONVECTION CHANCES ON THU AS ECMWF KEEPS
HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THU WHILE NAM MAINLY
HAS PCPN IN SOUTHEAST IL AND GFS AND GEM IN BETWEEN. NBM KEEPS
FAIRLY HIGH POPS AROUND THU THOUGH SEVERE RISK LOOKS LOW. THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING LOOKS DRIER/LULL IN CONVECTION CHANCES.
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ROCKIES LAST THIS WEEK
TO EJECT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND
COULD BE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOO, THOUGH NOT IN AN
OFFICIAL SPC OUTLOOK YET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
55-60F AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AND MID TO
UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW IN COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF STORMS, THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS (KPIA, KBMI, KCMI), WHICH IS WHERE PROB30 GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED. CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCE (30-50%) FOR MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING IN AFTER 12Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...NMA
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