589
FXUS63 KILX 141837
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
137 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
A 15-30% RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON,
TOMORROW NIGHT, AND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY
RISKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THIS EVENING NORTHEAST OF A ROUGHLY GALESBURG TO
MATTOON LINE.
- AFTER A WARM WORK WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL TURN SHARPLY COOLER ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR FROST
SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-70, AND A HIGHER CHANCE AREA-WIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
***** BOOM OR BUST CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON *****
AT 1PM, A WARM AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON 15-20 (GUSTING TO 30)
MPH SOUTHWEST BREEZES, WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE AIRMASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH RAP
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING 1500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE. A CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNLESS AND UNTIL A TRIGGER
LIFTS PARCELS TO THE LFC, WHICH AT THIS POINT REMAINS UNCLEAR.
RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 12Z REFS
SUGGEST THAT CAP WILL BREAK, RESULTING IN EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ABOUT 60-70% OF CAMS KEEP THE CAP IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING - MAINTAINING WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE 18Z RAOB CONFIRMS THIS NOTION, DEPICTING A 3 DEGC CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 800MB WHICH WOULD TAKE A LOT OF FORCING TO
OVERCOME. GIVEN THE PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VOLATILE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
SBCAPES CLIMBING TO 2500-4000 J/KG, 700-500 LAPSE RATES REACHING
8-8.5C/KM, AND 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR, ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WOULD POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY LARGE
HAIL WHERE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW (FROM THE SSW/SW) IS UNIMPEDED
IN RIGHT- MOVING SUPERCELLS (FAVORED BY CLOCKWISE CURVED
HODOGRAPHS). IN ADDITION, A FEW OF THE MORE BULLISH MODELS SHOW
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 3+ INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN A FEW HOURS
WITH TRAINING STORMS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGICAL
ISSUES; ACCORDINGLY, WPC HAS EXPANDED THE LEVEL 2 OF 5 (SLIGHT)
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF OUR CWA.
WE'LL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON MESOSCALE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL AND ISSUE ANY NECESSARY WARNINGS.
***** MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW *****
WE'LL LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) HAVE A FEW MORE STORMS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING MCS LIFTS UP INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. WE MAY END UP NEEDING SOME SHORT-FUSED WIND HEADLINE IF
THE HRRR AND RRFS ARE CORRECT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF A MESO-HIGH
FEATURE IMPACTING OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BETWEEN 11PM AND 4AM,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO LOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH OUR AREA TOMORROW, WITH
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT BRINGING WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PRAIRIE STATE. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT
WEAKER TOMORROW DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED STORMS
LIMITING SURFACE HEATING, THOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD (8PM-2AM)
WEST OF I-55 WHERE A FEW CAMS BRING A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS.
***** DRY THURSDAY(?), STORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT *****
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING A MOMENT'S REPOSE FROM THE ACTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT KINEMATIC SYSTEM. AS
WITH TODAY, WE'LL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY, SO A VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER IF A TRIGGER
RUPTURES THE CAPPING INVERSION. OTHERWISE, MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOMETIME LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS IS NOT A DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND 45-55 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SEVERE WINDS IF A MATURE LINE OF STORMS ENTERS OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...OR DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
EASTERN ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY.
***** COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY *****
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY, WITH STIFF
WEST WINDS USHERING IN A MORE SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NBM INDICATES A 30-50% CHANCE LOW TEMPERATURES
BY SATURDAY NIGHT FALL TO 36 DEG OR COOLER NORTH OF I-70, THOUGH
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN NBM CHANCES ARE 30-60% AREA-
WIDE FOR SUB 37 DEGF LOWS AND WINDS SHOULD BE CALM WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS THE CWA. PROTECTIVE ACTION MAY BE NEEDED TO
PREVENT FROST FROM DAMAGING TENDER VEGETATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
ISOLATED (20-30% COVERAGE) THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ANY OF THE
AIRFIELDS FROM ROUGHLY 19Z TO 02Z. THESE COULD BE SEVERE AND
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT
IMPACT AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WAS TOO LOW TO ADD A MENTION OF GR
OR 50+KT GUSTS IN THE TAFS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, PERIODS OF ISOLATED, THOUGH
LESS INTENSE, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IMPACTS PIA, SPI, AND BMI
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z AS A DECAYING STORM COMPLEX APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD THIS
TO THE TAFS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BLOW FROM THE SSW
AROUND 12-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LIFT AND/OR BREAK UP BY 20Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR 4/14:
PEORIA: 86 (2024)
SPRINGFIELD: 89 (2006)
LINCOLN: 87 (2006)
NORMAL: 84 (2006)
URBANA: 84 (2010)
DECATUR: 88 (1941)
FORECAST HIGHS FOR 4/14/2026:
PEORIA: 84
SPRINGFIELD: 87
LINCOLN: 86
NORMAL: 84
URBANA: 84
DECATUR: 85
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BUMGARDNER
DISCUSSION...BUMGARDNER
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
CLIMATE...25/MJA
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