360
FXUS63 KILX 171103
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
603 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHAMPAIGN TO PANA WEST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) EXTENDS AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A TERRE HAUTE TO OLNEY LINE. DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COULD LEAD TO FROST DEVELOPING
BOTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
HARM ANY SENSITIVE EARLY SEASON VEGETATION, AS THE GROWING
SEASON HAS STARTED ACROSS ILLINOIS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER NORTHEAST IL FROM MORRIS TO KANKAKEE
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP TODAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/TROF DURING THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY OVER CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID SUMMERLIKE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
LATEST CAMS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO WAA. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE STRONG 994
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST OF GREEN BAY WI BY 06Z/1 AM TONIGHT AND PULLS A STRONG
COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY. MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN/SE
IOWA AND NORTHERN MO DURING EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES
ABOVE 3000 J/KG WHILE 2-3K J/KG SB CAPES OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF I-57. WIND SHEAR VALUES PEAK
FORM 30-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL IL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIALLY
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN IA, NORTHERN MO INTO NW IL WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
THESE COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH
STRONGER TORNADOES EF2 OR STRONGER WEST OF THE IL RIVER, WITH
EF3 OR STRONGER NW OF GALESBURG MAINLY DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT AND COULD BE
WINDS OVER 75 MPH IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM CHAMPAIGN TO
PANA WEST. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL/SE IL LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AND COULD
STILL SEE SEVERE STORMS. WPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND NW IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, WITH MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT. BETWEEN THREE QUARTER AND 1 INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED OVERALL WITH SOME AREAS SEEING 1-1.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY
OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY.
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL SAT MORNING, TO DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. BREEZY NW
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY TO BRING IN MUCH COOLER
AIR AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO 30S OVERNIGHT
SAT NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL IL BY DAWN SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-72. UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO IL SAT
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE IL ON SUNDAY WITH COOL
CONDITIONS. LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FROST
LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NE CWA AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
WARMUP IN STORE FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY,
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO IL BY THU. HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S MON CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUE AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WED/THU. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LOW DURING
EARLY TO MID WEEK, WITH NEXT STORMS SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE MIDWEST AROUND NEXT FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 22-26 HAS A
45-55% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL/SE IL
AND A 40-45% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
PATCHY FOG AT CMI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 3/4SM
TO 2SM SINCE 0930Z IS STARTED TO LIFT ABOVE 4 MILES WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SE WINDS UP TO 7 KTS. HAVE TEMPO
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY WITH LIGHT FOG AT CMI UNTIL 13Z. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO VEER SOUTH
AND INCREASE TO 16-22 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-32 KTS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES 3-5K FT TO APPEAR DURING THIS MORNING WITH BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS. THE 09Z HRRR MODEL KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF
PIA AND SPI AND SOUTH OF CMI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD TO LIKELY BRING A SQUALL LINE EAST TO
PIA AROUND 01Z, TO BMI AND SPI BY 03Z AND DEC AND CMI BETWEEN
04-05Z. HAVE A 2 HOUR PERIOD OF WNW WINDS 35G45 KTS WITH +1TSRA
AND MVFR CEILINGS. SHOWERS DIMINISH BETWEEN 09Z-12Z BEHIND COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING. WEST TO NW WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY AT 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07/DEUBELBEISS
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