206
FXUS63 KILX 180848
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
348 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 4 AM CDT OVER CENTRAL IL WHERE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
EAST OF I-55.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FROST DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVER CENTRAL IL. SOME AREAS FROM I-74 NORTHEAST COULD EVEN GET
TO NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AFFECTED CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL
FROM I-72 NORTH FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH SEVERAL TORNADOES. AT
LEAST 7 CONFIRMED TORNADOES IN CENTRAL IL SO FAR, OVER FULTON,
MASON, TAZEWELL, LOGAN, MCLEAN AND CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES.
BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL HAD A LOT OF WIND DAMAGE REPORTS INCLUDING
SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. THREE SURVEY TEAMS WILL BE CONDUCTED
TODAY IN CENTRAL IL. THE STORMS WEAKENED DURING LATE FRI EVENING
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE COLD FRONT HAD JUST PASSED EAST OF I-55
WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
I-55 EAST. BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER MUCH OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY AND 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN AS FAR EAST AS
SPRINGFIELD AND LINCOLN. SPRINGFIELD SET A DAILY RAINFALL RECORD
OF 1.36 INCHES ON FRI/APR 17TH BEATING THE 1.13 INCHES SET IN
1912. WE WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM OVER
CENTRAL IL AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
TO BE ENDING IN EAST CENTRAL IL.
THE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF I-55 WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTCENTRAL
AND SE IL BY MID MORNING (14Z/9 AM) WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING
FROM EAST OF I-55 DURING THIS MORNING. CLOUDS TO DECREASE OVER
THE IL RIVER VALLEY DURING MID/LATE MORNING AND OVER THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND SE IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH TODAY BRINGING
IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WEST OF I-55 WHILE MILDER TEMPS STILL IN THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON, MILDEST IN
SOUTHEAST IL.
THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVER CWA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO RIDGE INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY
BY DAWN SUNDAY. BREEZY NW WINDS AT SUNSET TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AND VEER WSW OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, COLDEST FROM MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON NORTH WHERE FROST
MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE FROST FROM
GETTING AS WIDESPREAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY NEED TO READDRESS THIS ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN CWA IF WIND GETS LIGHTER.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER IL DURING SUNDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY
NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND COOLEST FROM I-74 NORTHEAST.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES DROPS
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY DAWN MONDAY AND TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. FEEL SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST OVER CENTRAL IL AND MAYBE EVEN TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING FROM I-74 NORTHEAST. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING AND MAYBE
EVEN A FREEZE WARNING OVER NE CWA.
AMPLE SUNSHINE MONDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND MILDEST
IN SOUTHEAST IL AND WESTERN CWA. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT TO
KEEP IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS WARM FRONT LIFTS EAST OF IL BY
LATE MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. MORE SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S MON NIGHT.WARMER ON TUE WITH BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30
MPH AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
WE HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT IS LIMITED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY. MILD
HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F AND LIGHTER WEST TO SW
WINDS 5-10 MPH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SO OVERALL A
PRETTY NICE DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY THU NIGHT
AND FRI BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THU WITH BREEZY SSW
WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH. HIGHS IN THE 70S FRI AND COOLING INTO
THE 60S NEXT SATURDAY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS
PER NBM/WPC. THOUGH GEM AND ECMWF MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER OVER
IL NEXT SATURDAY WHILE GFS MODEL IS DRIER.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR
23-27TH HAS A 50-60% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, AND A 40-45% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA BUT RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM BEHIND THE MAIN LINE
OF STORMS. OTHERWISE WINDS TURN NW AND BECOME GUSTY TO 20-25KT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SWING THROUGH THE STATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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