396
FXUS63 KILX 190852
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
352 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S AT DAYBREAK, WILL RESULT IN FROST DEVELOPMENT OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS MORNING. A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.
- TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT, WILL
RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. HREF HAS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES GETTING TO 32F OR COLDER NORTHEAST OF A
RUSHVILLE TO DECATUR TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY DAWN MONDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FROM
FULTON TO LOGAN TO EDGAR COUNTIES NORTH FROM 1-8 AM MONDAY,
WITH A FROST ADVISORY SOUTH (NOT INCLUDING CLAY, RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES). TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION
BY COVERING WITH CLOTH OR TAKING INDOORS.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK, WILL REBOUND
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WITH NBM HAVING 40-70% POTENTIAL OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CONTINUED THE FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING OVER CWA AS
TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNRISE, WITH
GALESBURG GETTING NEAR FREEZING (GBG CURRENTLY 34F AT 330 AM).
THE 08Z/3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AND RIDGING INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SE
IL. THE 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F
OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WAS OVER CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHERN MN
INTO SOUTHEAST SD. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CWA DURING MIDDAY, AND NEAR HIGHWAY 50 IN
SOUTHEAST IL BY SUNSET. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER MN AND NORTHERN IOWA SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CWA WITH
THE COLD FRONT DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHOULD MOSTLY PASS THROUGH
DRY THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEST
TO SW WINDS TO SWITCH NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH FROM THE IL RIVER SOUTHEAST. HREF HAS A
50-80% CHANCE OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH FROM IL RIVER SE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FROM I-74
NORTH AND LOWER 60S FROM LINCOLN TO PARIS SOUTH.
1025 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA PROVINCE LINE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND STRENGTHEN TO 1030 MB. THIS TO RETURN CLEAR
SKIES TO CENTRAL/SE IL DURING TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
LIGHT BY OVERNIGHT AS THEY VEER NORTH TO NE. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HREF HAS A
60-80% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES GETTING TO 32F OR COLDER NORTHEAST
OF A RUSHVILLE TO DECATUR TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY DAWN MONDAY.
SO THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FROM
FULTON, LOGAN AND EDGAR COUNTIES NORTH FROM 1-8 AM MONDAY, WITH
A FROST ADVISORY SOUTH, THOUGH NOT INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN 3
COUNTIES OF CLAY, RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND BY DAWN TUE WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE INTO CENTRAL IL.
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH 5-10 MPH MON AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH MID 60S FROM JACKSONVILLE SW TOWARD THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. NOT AS COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, COOLEST NEAR THE IN BORDER. BREEZY SW
WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH BY TUE AFTERNOON BRINGS MILDER HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT AND COULD BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL IL. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STAY NORTH AND
NE OF CWA TUE NIGHT AND WED, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND IL ON WED. PRETTY NICE DAY EXPECTED
WED WITH SW WINDS 5-15 MPH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AGAIN. EVEN WARMER ON THU WITH
HIGHS 80-85F WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH BY
THU AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TO
EJECT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THU NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 990 MB OR STRONGER PASSING NW OF MN BY
DAWN FRI. APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THU NIGHT TO INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST
ESPECIALLY BY OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF IL ON
SAT COULD KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AROUND ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST IL. ECMWF AND GEM MODELS HAVE QPF OVER SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF CWA SAT WHILE GFS KEEPS QPF JUST SOUTH OF CWA. DRIER
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY ACROSS AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SAT/SUN WITH SE IL NEAR 70F.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR
26-MAY 2 HAS AROUND A 40-50% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS IL. CPC HAS A 33-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL, WHILE AREAS NORTH OF
PEORIA ARE TRENDING NEAR NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH, A MODEST WSW/W BREEZE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING MID MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS PICKING UP MORE
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE N
TO NE SUNDAY EVENING AND DROP BACK BELOW 10 KT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-041>046-055-057.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ILZ040-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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