711
FXUS63 KILX 280619
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
119 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A QUARTER
INCH IS SOUTH OF I-72/DANVILLE (60-80% CHANCE). SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. FROST IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
ACTIVE CONVECTION DEPARTED THE ILX CWA AROUND 10PM MON/03Z TUES.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WERE POSITIONED NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AS OF 1230AM TUES/0530Z, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY INTO IL. THIS FRONT WAS
NEARING THE I- 57 CORRIDOR AS OF 1230AM TUES. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT (A FEW WEAK ECHOES
HAVE BEEN NOTED IN KILX RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS), OUR THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
LESS THAN 15% AT ANY ONE LOCATION. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK (BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT) IS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH OVERCAST SKIES FROM THE IL RIVER BACK
INTO NW IA AND PORTIONS OF SE MN. THE EXPECTATION IS THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL PERSIST AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILX CWA TUES AM.
THIS CLOUD DECK MAY START TO BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WEST. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, TRENDED TEMPS A
BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
*** MORE RAIN TONIGHT ***
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A
SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OK TO THE OHIO VALLEY TUES PM. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AMPLE WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ILX CWA,
RESULTING IN NO SFC BASED INSTABILITY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
VALUES ALSO APPEAR MEAGER, GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG, SO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO APPEAR UNLIKELY FOR OUR CWA WITH THIS
WAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND, PWAT VALUES ARE MODEST, WITH THE ENS
MEAN INCREASING TO 1-1.25" SOUTH OF I-70. BOTH THE NBM AND HREF
DEPICT A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE QPF PROBABILITIES, WITH A 60-80%
CHANCE OF OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-72/DANVILLE,
DECREASING QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 30% NORTH OF I-72/DANVILLE. THE
BEST CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS SOUTH OF I-70
(50-60%). THE RAIN WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR AFTER 7 PM TUES NIGHT
AND BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
*** MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND ***
A RELATIVELY BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONE PERIOD TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN WOULD BE AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH THURS
PM (10-15% CHANCE). THIS WAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS (ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS LESS THAN 0.5"), SO
ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WOULD BE LIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A RENEWED PUSH OF COOL AIR, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F
ON FRI AND A CHANCE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT AS LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY
NEED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION.
MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS TO DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT GENERALLY FAVORS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH
OF THE REGION, REESTABLISHING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS. ENS GUIDANCE FAVORS HIGHS BETWEEN THE
MID 60S AND MID 70S INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NBM
DELIVERING VALUES ON THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FROM THE WEST, AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AROUND MIDDAY TO ABOUT 4-5KFT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...ERWIN
DISCUSSION...ERWIN
AVIATION...GEELHART
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