491
FXUS63 KILX 281825
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
125 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE IL RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER A HALF INCH IS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 (60-80%
CHANCE). SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. FROST IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE MID 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSOURI VALLEY, PROGGED TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT.
HIGH- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP) INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z. THE HREF
DENOTES A HIGH PROBABILITY (90%+) OF RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING
0.10 INCHES SOUTH OF I-72, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
RESIDES. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER ALSO EXIST SOUTH OF
I-70 WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WHILE WE
DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS IN THE LOCAL AREA, SPC'S MARGINAL
AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS ARE JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SOUTHERN IL.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE WAVE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-25 MPH. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A DEEP UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THIS WEEKEND. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S, WHICH
IS ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FAST- MOVING
BUT MOISTURE- STARVED SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL STICK WITH NBM'S 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS
PERIOD.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LEADING TO
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THE ECMWF EFI SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR ANOMALOUS COLD, AND NBM 10TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE FEASIBLE IN RURAL
AND LOW- LYING AREAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-80%) EXISTS IN SEEING
FROST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THIS TIME. THOSE
WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY NEED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THOUGH SPECIFIC TIMING REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE VARIANCE IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS. THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS A RANGE OF GUIDANCE, SUPPORTED BY RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
MVFR STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FEET WILL RISE TO VFR
LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING,
HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (20-30%) OF MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT KDEC-KCMI LATE TONIGHT. KEPT SCT025 MENTION FOR
NOW AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MVFR CEILINGS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER NORTH AND LIGHTEN
THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE TO 10-15 KT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...25
DISCUSSION...25
AVIATION...25
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