379
FXUS63 KILX 291744
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FROST THREAT EXISTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, EXPANDING TO INCLUDE AREAS NORTH OF
I-72 FRIDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
A WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. MSLP GRADIENT EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
TONIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA, OUTLYING AREAS WILL HAVE A RISK FOR
PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-74.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HREF MEMBERS DEPICT LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY MID-
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.15
INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTION FOR THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN CWA MID AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
(BELOW 800 MB) WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS UNDER ANY SHOWER,
POTENTIALLY UP TO 40-50 MPH AS DEPICTED BY LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING REPRESENT THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST, BASED ON LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH, THAT COULD DIMINISH THE FROST POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A TRANSITION IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OCCURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A WARMING TREND, THOUGH
MODEL DISAGREEMENT PERSISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
PRECIPITATION- PRODUCING SYSTEMS. THE GFS SHOWS A FASTER RETURN
OF MOISTURE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND
ECMWF- AI KEEP THE REGION DRY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BLENDED
GUIDANCE RETURNS LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, AND LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN RE-FORM THU MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...25
DISCUSSION...25
AVIATION...25
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