170
FXUS63 KILX 010650
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
150 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST NEAR AND NORTH OF I-74 TONIGHT.
WHILE THE CHANCE IS LOW (20-40%), THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION
SHOULD CONSIDER COVERING THEIR PLANTS TO PREVENT DAMAGE.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (50-60% CHANCE) ARE FORECAST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHETHER A SEVERE RISK WILL
MATERIALIZE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
***** COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH SATURDAY *****
AT 145AM, RAP MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A 8820M 300MB TROUGH CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO. THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ROUGHLY I-55. CONSEQUENTLY,
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE ILX CWA, BUT SHOWERS LINGER FURTHER EAST. CAMS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DEPART INTO INDIANA BY 4-5AM, AND THEN THE AREA SHOULD
BE DRY UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS, SO MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WON'T
REACH THE GROUND. EVEN SO, MOST CAMS DEPICT AT LEAST SPOTTY, LIGHT
(LESS THAN 0.05") PRECIPITATION, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
(15-20%) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF A
ROUGHLY GALESBURG TO OLNEY LINE.
WHILE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SOUTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, LIGHT
WINDS MAY FAVOR PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES
WHERE HREF/NBM SUGGEST A 20-50% CHANCE LOW TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
36 DEGREES. THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY, BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL REVISIT THIS; FOR THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF I-74, WE'D RECOMMEND
COVERING THOSE PLANTS JUST IN CASE.
***** WARMER, FEW STORMS, EARLY NEXT WEEK *****
THE FUJIWARA EFFECT BETWEEN A COMPACT TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED, LARGER TROUGH
SITUATED OVER ONTARIO WILL PULL THE LATTER BACK NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WHICH SPELLS A (BRIEF) RETURN TO WARMER
WEATHER. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY. IN FACT, STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE PRESENCE OF A
WARM FRONT (SOURCE OF LIFT AND INCREASED SHEAR) NEARBY MAY
PROMOTE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ON
MONDAY; VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAMS HIGHLIGHT THE AREA
WITH 5-15% SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.
***** BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RETURN MID WEEK *****
AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA, BRINGING A RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS AND
AN END TO THE RAIN. THE NBM GIVES THE AREA A 30-50% CHANCE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALL SHY OF 60 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE BUT THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AROUND
NOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10KTS BUT THEN INCREASE TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS.
DURING THE EVENING, SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BUMGARDNER
DISCUSSION...BUMGARDNER
AVIATION...AUTEN
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