936
FXUS63 KILX 022317
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF I-57 TONIGHT. WHILE
THE CHANCE IS LOW (20-40%) AND FROST SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF, THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION SHOULD CONSIDER COVERING
THEIR PLANTS TO PREVENT DAMAGE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL, AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL IL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A COOL AIR MASS LINGERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DIMINISHES AND
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPS AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. CONCERNS FOR FROST CONTINUE
FOR TONIGHT, HOWEVER INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE
DURATION OF STRONG TEMPERATURE FALLS AS WELL AS INCREASE NEAR
SURFACE MIXING LATE IN THE NIGHT. HAVE LOWS OF 36 TO 38 IN
SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL IL, JUST TO THE BRINK OF FROST
FORMATION, AND LOWER 40S FROM I-72 NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUDS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED. HREF (HIGH RES ENSEMBLE FORECAST) SYSTEM
DEPICTS A 30-50% CHANCE OF BRIEFLY REACHING 36 DEGREES AT 6 AM
IN SOUTHEAST IL, WHICH ISN'T QUITE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES TO A
FROST ADVISORY (WOULD WANT A FEW HOURS WORTH OF FROSTY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES), BUT WILL INCLUDE PATCHY
FROST IN FORECAST.
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SUNDAY, WE COULD SEE AREAS OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA,
MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY
DEPART, HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
STORMS TO OVERCOME A CAP AND REALIZE A FEW HUNDRED TO AROUND 1000
(SW PORTIONS OF CWA) J/KG. WITH UP TO 50 KT SFC-500 MB SHEAR, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY FORM, AND SPC DEPICTS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL IL'S SW TIER OF
COUNTIES ARCING FROM SCOTT/MORGAN COUNTY TO SHELBY COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TO CLAY COUNTY. TIMING OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 PM.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL IL MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT RELATIVELY LOW COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASING COVERAGE SHOULD TAKE PLACE
IN THE EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THE FRONT NEARS
THE AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY, ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND SFC-
500 MB SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL FOR MONDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE
ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY, BUT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES LINGER INTO
TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOWER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ENSUE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND STRONGLY UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S
MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER 50S TO 60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP SUNDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS (30%
CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WEST-CENTRAL IL EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING, THOUGH TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER 00Z. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...NMA
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