984
FXUS63 KILX 040530
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1230 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (30-50%) SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE. MORE
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
- EACH ROUND OF STORMS WILL CARRY A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, BLOWING DUST HAS RESULTED FROM STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. SEVERAL AREAS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SANGAMON, LOGAN,
CHRISTIAN, MACON, AND SHELBY COUNTIES AT THIS POINT, WITH
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IN ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL. THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS LOOKS AS
IF IT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW 30 MPH GUSTS BY SUNSET
ALLEVIATING BLOWING DUST ISSUES. HAVE ISSUED A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND NORTH OF I-70,
AS WELL AS KNOX AND PEORIA COUNTY WHERE ADDITIONAL BLOWING DUST
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. SEVERAL LOCALIZED DUST STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
HREF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 500-1000 J/KG CAPE EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL UP TO AROUND A JACKSONVILLE
TO ROBINSON LINE. ALONG WITH 50 KTS BULK SHEAR, THIS COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AFTER AROUND 6 PM WHEN A CAPPING
INVERSION IS FINALLY OVERCOME ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS
IN THIS AREA. CAMS DEPICT THIS ACTIVITY FESTERING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH LARGELY ABSENT
FORCING AND A CAP DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW UNTIL EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE
WINDS IS LIKELY, AND SPC HAS ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK DEPICTED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER MODELS DEPICT VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING THIS FAR NORTH AND HENCE SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE LOW. NEVERTHELESS, MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION COULD BE SEEN TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 1.25
INCHES, AND A FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE TRAVERSE THE AREA. ENSEMBLE
MEAN PRECIPITATION RANGES FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH WEST OF I-55 UP
TO 1.25 INCH OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY, BUT UNDER 5%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND CHANCES ARE LOWER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE MAIN LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A
COOL, DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES. NEVERTHELESS, A FEW DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHING THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM COULD BE
NEXT SUNDAY, HOWEVER PREDOMINANT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND MINIMIZES RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACTS THIS FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND STRONGLY UPWARD FOR MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA, AND HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE FRONT CROSSES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH CLOUDY, RAINY CONDITIONS, AND HIGHS ARE
FORECAST FROM UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-72 TO MID 60S SOUTH OF I-70.
UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN A
WARMING TREND BRINGS HIGHS BACK UP TO 70S/NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, ANY CLEAR CALM
NIGHT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK COULD SUPPORT SOME EARLY MORNING
FROST. AT THIS POINT, LOWS IN THE 40S APPEAR MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES MOST OF THE 24HR
PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE SITES, BUT
SPI WILL SEE BROKEN MID CLOUDS SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTION OUT THERE CURRENTLY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS OVER
THE AREA, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, BUT
FOR JUST SPI, DEC, AND CMI. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN A BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z, WHEN
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10KTS NOW, BUT INCREASE DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING, BUT STILL SOME GUSTS
OVER 20KTS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...AUTEN
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