761
FXUS63 KILX 041553
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST OVER 35 MPH
TODAY NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR, PROMOTING PATCHY
BLOWING DUST ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY MISSED THE
RAINS. THIS CAN RESULT IN LOCALIZED, SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FOR MOTORISTS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.
THERE IS SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, MAINLY DURING THE 7 PM TO 1 AM TIMEFRAME. THE
HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT (SLIGHT RISK WITH LEVEL
2 OF 5) IS FROM CANTON TO DECATUR TO TAYLORVILLE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY. CONTINUED BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM SOUTHEAST OF THE IL RIVER AND NORTH OF
EFFINGHAM, CUMBERLAND AND CLARK COUNTIES. SW WINDS 10-20 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL IL PER LATEST
HRRR 10M WIND GUST FORECAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING DUST IN
RECENTLY TILLED FIELDS BETWEEN THE IL RIVER AND I-70, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT STAYED DRY SO FAR SINCE LAST NIGHT.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SPRINGFIELD TO DECATUR TO PARIS SOUTH TO NEAR I-70 AND TRACKING
EASTWARD QUICKLY AT 50 MPH. THERE IS A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TRACKING QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THIS CONVECTION ALONG WITH 30-40
KT SW LOW LEVEL JET INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ WEAKENS AND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
INDIANA. HOWEVER MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY SE OF I-55, AND ALSO DURING
THIS EVENING OVER NW CWA AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW IL DURING
THIS EVENING. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER MUCH OF IL FOR
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH AREAS FROM CANTON
TO DECATUR TO TAYLORVILLE SW UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS. BREEZY SW WINDS AND SOME SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
TO 75-80F DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
***** BREEZY AND WARM WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST TODAY *****
AT 230AM, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE WHERE 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED AROUND 850MB
WERE APPARENT ON SPC'S MESOANALYSIS PAGE. RADAR PRESENTATION WOULD
SUGGEST THE CORES OF THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL,
THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND IS TOWARD WEAKENING STORMS AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO WANE. CAMS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGH
DAYBREAK, THOUGH THE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH AFTERNOON BY WHICH TIME SURFACE
HEATING WILL BRING A RESURGENCE OF INSTABILITY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF) AND RAPID ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (REFS)
MEAN SBCAPE CLIMB TO 1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO ADVERTISE A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT REALIZATION OF THAT INSTABILITY UNTIL LLJ RAMPS UP DURING
THE EVENING.
WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE, DEEP MIXING WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY MID AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS
APPROACHING 40 KT (46 MPH) AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER - A
REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR PEAK GUSTS - IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GIVEN
WE HAD BLOWING DUST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS, WE
ELECTED TO ISSUE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND
EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER, WHERE THE RISK APPEARS GREATEST DUE TO
SOIL TYPE AND EXPECTED WINDS. (WHILE SEVERAL OF THE COUNTIES IN THIS
ADVISORY RECEIVED RAIN FROM STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING, THE SPOTTY
NATURE OF THAT RAINFALL AND TENDENCY FOR THE NEAR SURFACE TOPSOIL TO
QUICKLY DRY OUT MADE US THINK THE POTENTIAL IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH, PARTICULARY ALONG HIGHWAYS, TO ISSUE.)
***** STRONG STORMS TONIGHT, RAINY AND COOL TUESDAY *****
AS A 40-50 KT LLJ RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING,
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP, POSING PRIMARILY A RISK
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR IN BOTH THE MID LEVELS AND BELOW CLOUD BASES
(AROUND 850MB). GIVEN HIGH LCLS, THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS LOW (LESS
THAN 2%), BUT SPC MAINTAINS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR WIND
AND HAIL. AFTER MIDNIGHT, COVERAGE OF STORMS IS SLATED TO
INCREASE WHILE INSTABILITY GRADUALLY WANES, LOWERING THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE IN WAVES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. WHILE THIS RAINFALL WILL
BE SPREAD OUT OVER 24+ HOURS, WE CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES SOUTH OF I-72/DANVILLE WHERE SOME SPOTS
RECEIVED UP TO 5 INCHES LAST WEEK AND WHERE NBM GIVES A 5-15%
CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES; WPC HAS A LEVEL 1 OF 4 (MARGINAL)
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR AND EAST OF A ROUGHLY
SHELBYVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW
INTO WEDNESDAY, IT'LL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
***** STAYING COOL WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK *****
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO LATE WEEK,
WITH SHORTWAVES ORBITING IT AND OFFERING THE LOCAL AREA WITH
PERIODIC, LOW (15-30%) SHOWER CHANCES AND SHOTS OF CHILLY CANADIAN
AIR THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES DIFFER IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST, NBM'S
PROBABILISTIC DISTRIBUTION FOR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHIFTS
UP EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR EXAMPLE, THE 25TH
PERCENTILE (75% CHANCE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES) IN LINCOLN
INCREASES FROM 57 THURSDAY TO 65 FRIDAY TO 70 SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
ALL SITES WILL START AS VFR THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID CLOUDS AROUND 8-10KFT. THE MID CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND FOR SPI, DEC, AND CMI DURING THE DAY WHILE PIA AND BMI
WILL SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS CONTINUE. SPI, DEC, CMI MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTER NOON, BUT
THEN HAVE A BREAK LATE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND BE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE PROB30 FOR ALL SITES FOR
THUNDER AND REDUCED VIS TO 4SM. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT THEN AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS REACHING TO
AROUND 30KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING BLOWING DUST
TO BMI, SPI, AND CMI...SITES THAT HAVE SOME FARM FIELDS AROUND.
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING BUT STILL BE AROUND
12KTS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ031-
037-038-041>048-050>057-061.
KEY MESSAGES...BUMGARDNER
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...BUMGARDNER
AVIATION...AUTEN
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