654
FXUS63 KILX 041950
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SW WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE IL RIVER
WILL CAUSE BLOWING DUST IN OPEN/RURAL AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN TILLED. CONTINUED THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM
EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND NORTH OF I-70. BLOWING DUST CAN
RESULT IN LOCALIZED, SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
MOTORISTS TO BE USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL IL.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-55
THIS AFTERNOON, AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. THERE IS
SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, MAINLY FROM 7 PM TO 1 AM TONIGHT. THE HIGHER RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING (SLIGHT RISK WITH LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS
FROM SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY. CONTINUED BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM SOUTHEAST OF THE IL RIVER AND NORTH OF
EFFINGHAM, CUMBERLAND AND CLARK COUNTIES. SW WINDS 10-20 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL IL PER LATEST
HRRR 10M WIND GUST FORECAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING DUST IN
RECENTLY TILLED FIELDS BETWEEN THE IL RIVER AND I-70, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT STAYED DRY SO FAR SINCE LAST NIGHT.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SPRINGFIELD TO DECATUR TO PARIS SOUTH TO NEAR I-70 AND TRACKING
EASTWARD QUICKLY AT 50 MPH. THERE IS A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TRACKING QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THIS CONVECTION ALONG WITH 30-40
KT SW LOW LEVEL JET INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ WEAKENS AND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
INDIANA. HOWEVER MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY SE OF I-55, AND ALSO DURING
THIS EVENING OVER NW CWA AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW IL DURING
THIS EVENING. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER MUCH OF IL FOR
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH AREAS FROM CANTON
TO DECATUR TO TAYLORVILLE SW UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS. BREEZY SW WINDS AND SOME SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
TO 75-80F DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WE HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST SINCE
130 PM OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF LOGAN AND INTO MACON COUNTIES
WITH SW WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH. WILL CONTINUE THE
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND NORTH
OF I-70.
RADAR MOSAIC AT 230 PM SHOWS SOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST IN SOUTHEAST
IL FROM I-70 SOUTH WHILE A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SW OF
VANDALIA TO SOUTH SIDE OF ST LOUIS METRO AND TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NW OF A RANTOUL TO
TAYLORVILLE LINE AT MID AFTERNOON HELPING WARM TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MID TO UPPER 70S ALSO IN FAR
SOUTHEAST IL FROM ROBINSON TO OLNEY TO FAIRFIELD SE WHILE COOLER
65-72 DEGREES OVER CLOUDIER AREAS OF EASTERN IL. THE 19Z/2 PM
SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF WI/IOWA
INTO FAR NW MO AND CENTRAL KS. IL WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR SO FAR.
WE HAVE SOME CAPPING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AT MID
AFTERNOON THAT HAS KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS SO
FAR DESPITE MUCAPES OF 1-2K J/KG AND MLCAPES 500-1K J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-50 KTS.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE INTO NW IL DURING THIS EVENING AND WILL
SEE SW LLJ 35-40 KTS INTO CENTRAL IL HELPING TO DEVELOP
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS EVENING AND A FEW CELLS COULD
APPEAR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN IL AND GETTING
INTO KNOX AND STARK AND NW MARSHALL COUNTIES BY SUNSET AND
SHIFTING SE INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING. SPC DAY1
OUTLOOK HAS SLIGHT RISK OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL FROM
SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS NORTHWEST AND MARGINAL RISK SOUTHEAST.
SPC HAS 2% RISK OF TORNADOES IN SLIGHT RISK AREA, WHILE 5-15%
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER CWA (HIGHEST NE OF BMI).
ALSO HAVE 5-15% RISK OF LARGE HAIL OVER AREA, WITH THE 15% RISK
IN SLIGHT RISK AREA. ALSO HAVE LEVEL 1 FOR 2 INCH OR LARGER HAIL
OVER WEST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN MO FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COLD FRONT TO PRESS SE TOWARD IL RIVER VALLEY EARLY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST IL LATE TUE MORNING TO MIDDAY TUE.
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS SHIFT SOUTH OF CWA ON TUE THOUGH WE HAVE
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE 1-2
INCHES POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING TUE NIGHT WILE JUST
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON WED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-74. MUCH
COOLER TUE WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, WITH HIGHS 55-60F OVER
CENTRAL IL AND 60-65 IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S CENTRAL IL TUE NIGHT AND MID 40S SOUTHEAST IL. COOL
HIGHS WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH EVEN COOLER LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 40S IN SOUTHEAST IL. A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THU COULD KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND THOUGH WE CURRENTLY HAVE POPS LESS THAN 20% ON THU. HIGHS
THU 60-65F, MILDEST OVER WEST CENTRAL IL. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF DIVES SE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRI
AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING. BREEZY SW WINDS ON FRIDAY WARMS
TEMPS UP TO 65-70F.
SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BUT ANOTHER ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY (MOTHERS DAY) TO RETURN CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS SE OF BMI AND
WENT TO CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE AREAS AND TO AFFECT CMI AIRPORT
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND
BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FROM I-55 SE. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST AND NW DURING MID TO LATE TUE MORNING FROM I-55 NW AND
LIKELY CONTINUE AT CMI AND DEC INTO TUE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SW
WINDS 15-22 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-32 KTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE
BLOWING DUST AT CMI AND BMI BUT RECENT RAINFALL AT CMI MAY LIMIT
THAT. SSW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THIS EVENING
AND SWITCH NORTH TO NNE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
MOVES SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL, STARTING AT PIA AND LAST AT DEC
AND CMI, AND CONTINUE INTO TUE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ031-
037-038-041>048-050>057-061.
KEY MESSAGES...07
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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