232
FXUS63 KILX 051949
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE IL RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70,
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING MID EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
- COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS 75-80F ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE (40-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST TODAY AND EVENING TO ADJUST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS, WITH ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS EXITING EAST OF I-57 LATE
THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO. THE 2ND BATCH OF SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ENE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF CWA (MAINLY SE
OF THE IL RIVER) NEXT FEW HOURS AND HRRR AND OTHER CAM MEMBERS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS. HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WITH ADDITIONAL HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL RISK SOUTH OF CWA INTO SOUTHERN
REACHES OF WABASH AND EDWARDS COUNTIES FOR 5% RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH DURING MID/LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT
WAS IN FAR SOUTHEAST LAWRENCE COUNTY, JUST PASSING THROUGH
LAWRENCEVILLE AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND NORTH TO NE WINDS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH LOWER 60S IN FAR SOUTHEAST IL, A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
OHIO INTO SOUTHEAST IN AND FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF IL AND MO
BOOTHEEL. A 2ND WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ENE OVER CENTRAL IL
DURING PAST FEW HOURS AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF A MINONK TO PEORIA TO
MACOMB LINE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN SOUTHERN IL, SOUTH
OF I-64. SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
WELL NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SE OF PEORIA INTO EARLY
EVENING, AND DIMINISH DURING MID TO LATE EVENING (LINGERING IN
SOUTHEAST IL INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT). BETWEEN A HALF AND 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST IL BY MIDNIGHT WITH A
TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OVER HEART OF CWA NEAR I-72 AND I-55
CORRIDOR. CONTINUED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEAST 8 COUNTIES INTO EARLY EVENING. WPC DAY1 CONTINUES
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SE OF A TERRE HAUTE TO FLORA
LINE INTO THIS EVENING. COOLER LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S
IN CENTRAL IL AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO SW CWA WED MORNING FROM SPRINGFIELD SW.
GENERALLY A DRIER DAY THOUGH AND COOL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F WHICH IS QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN EARLY MAY IN LOW TO MID 70S. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO IL WED NIGHT TO BRING OUR COOLEST NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F. COULD EVEN BE PATCHY FROST LATE
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING NE OF I-74. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE MIDWEST DURING MID WEEK INTO THU KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS THU IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS MILDER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. EVEN WARMER
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80F (WITH LOWER 80S IN WEST CENTRAL
IL) AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH A BIT BREEZY WSW WINDS.
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RETURNING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING
QUICKER EJECTING SYSTEM AWAY FROM IL LATER SUNDAY SO WE MAY
TREND DRIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON MOTHERS DAY ESPECIALLY OVER IL
RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY/MOTHERS DAY IS UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS
MODERATING FROM HIGHS IN UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S MONDAY TO MID TO
UPPER 70S NEXT TUE.
MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA DURING MID
AND LATE NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13-19TH HAS A 35-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER ILLINOIS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIFTING ENE INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL AND CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR SPI AND SW OF PIA. THESE SHOWERS
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS, THOUGH
LIKELY STAYING JUST SOUTH/SE OF PIA WHERE VCSH CARRIED THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG I-72 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS SHOWERS DIMINISH FROM I-55 SE
BETWEEN 00-04Z. HRRR SHOWS PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF CMI TOWARD
DAYBREAK BUT OTHER CAMS ARE LIMITED WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IF
CLOUDS DECREASE/SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING POSITIVE TILTED TROF APPROACHING IL ON
WED AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD 5-10K FT CLOUDS BACK INTO CENTRAL IL
BETWEEN 13-15Z WED ESPECIALLY FROM I-55 SE. NORTH TO NNE WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE NORTH AROUND 5 KTS OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND NW 5-10 KTS AFTER 14Z WED.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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