012
FXUS63 KILX 060534
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1234 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE IL RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70,
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING MID EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
- COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS 75-80F ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE (40-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
OHIO INTO SOUTHEAST IN AND FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF IL AND MO
BOOTHEEL. A 2ND WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ENE OVER CENTRAL IL
DURING PAST FEW HOURS AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF A MINONK TO PEORIA TO
MACOMB LINE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN SOUTHERN IL, SOUTH
OF I-64. SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
WELL NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SE OF PEORIA INTO EARLY
EVENING, AND DIMINISH DURING MID TO LATE EVENING (LINGERING IN
SOUTHEAST IL INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT). BETWEEN A HALF AND 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST IL BY MIDNIGHT WITH A
TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OVER HEART OF CWA NEAR I-72 AND I-55
CORRIDOR. CONTINUED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEAST 8 COUNTIES INTO EARLY EVENING. WPC DAY1 CONTINUES
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SE OF A TERRE HAUTE TO FLORA
LINE INTO THIS EVENING. COOLER LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S
IN CENTRAL IL AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO SW CWA WED MORNING FROM SPRINGFIELD SW.
GENERALLY A DRIER DAY THOUGH AND COOL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F WHICH IS QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN EARLY MAY IN LOW TO MID 70S. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO IL WED NIGHT TO BRING OUR COOLEST NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F. COULD EVEN BE PATCHY FROST LATE
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING NE OF I-74. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE MIDWEST DURING MID WEEK INTO THU KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS THU IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS MILDER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. EVEN WARMER
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80F (WITH LOWER 80S IN WEST CENTRAL
IL) AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH A BIT BREEZY WSW WINDS.
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RETURNING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING
QUICKER EJECTING SYSTEM AWAY FROM IL LATER SUNDAY SO WE MAY
TREND DRIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON MOTHERS DAY ESPECIALLY OVER IL
RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY/MOTHERS DAY IS UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS
MODERATING FROM HIGHS IN UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S MONDAY TO MID TO
UPPER 70S NEXT TUE.
MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA DURING MID
AND LATE NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13-19TH HAS A 35-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER ILLINOIS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. BROKEN
TO MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BLANKETED OVER THE SITES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEN CLEARING/SCATTERING OUT OF
THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR WED EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START
BUT THEN BECOME NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF
7-10KTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE EVENING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...AUTEN
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