996
FXUS63 KILX 061127
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
627 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(30-50%) NORTH OF A MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE. WE RECOMMEND
THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION COVER THEIR PLANTS TO PREVENT
DAMAGE.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-30%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTH OF ROUGHLY I-72/DANVILLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
***** SPRINKLES LATE MORNING, PATCHY FROST TONIGHT *****
AT 145AM, SHOWERS WERE TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE RAP/NAM SUGGEST 500MB FLOW WILL INCREASE
AFTER DAWN IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, WITH PERHAPS SUFFICIENT LIFT TO TRIGGER A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BETWEEN 8AM AND NOON. HOWEVER,
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) ARE UNDERSTANDABLY LOW GIVEN DRYING OF LOW LEVELS
(BELOW 10KFT) EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONTINUED COOL
ADVECTION VIA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONFINE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THEN SINKING LIKE A ROCK
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE
FORECAST (HREF) SYSTEM GIVES A 30-50% CHANCE THAT LOWS TOMORROW
MORNING FALL BELOW 37 DEGREES - AN APPROXIMATE FROST THRESHOLD WITH
LIGHT WINDS - NORTH OF A ROUGHLY MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE, WITH
LOWER (BUT NONZERO) CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ACCORDINGLY, WE ADDED PATCHY
FROST TO THE FORECAST AND WOULD ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO COVER TENDER
VEGETATION TO PREVENT DAMAGE.
***** FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MORE RAIN FRIDAY *****
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, WE'LL GET A 10-20 MPH
WESTERLY BREEZE WHICH SHOULD ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
(COMPARED TO TODAY), WITH MOST/ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)
WARMING INTO THE 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SPARKING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A MACOMB TO
PARIS LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V FEATURING DRY AIR
BELOW ABOUT 800MB, SO IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF THESE GENERATE
LOCALLY GUSTY (40+MPH) WINDS, BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE RISK.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION RESUMES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE LOW
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST (LREF) SYSTEM MEAN BRINGING 850MB
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO 6-8 DEGC BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL SPARK MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AREA-WIDE AND A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SOUTH OF I-72/DANVILLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY, BUT WITH RETURNING
WARM ADVECTION ON SATURDAY (SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH)
WE SHOULD WARM SOLIDLY INTO THE 70S; IN FACT, NBM EVEN
ADVERTISES A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 80+ DEGREE HIGHS IN WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.
***** MORE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING *****
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SPARKING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWER CHANCES (40-60%). IF THE AREA GETS A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, WE MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (20-30%) SOUTH OF ROUGHLY I-72/DANVILLE WHERE THE
LREF GIVES A 10-25% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 250 J/KG MUCAPE SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE THEN PUSHES AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE AREA,
WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC 05.06.00Z GFS AND A HANDFUL OF LREF MEMBERS
FORM A SURFACE LOW. WITH THE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, WHILE THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SOLUTION WOULD GIVE US QUITE
THE PUSH OF COOL ADVECTION. THE GFS, FOR EXAMPLE, KEEPS TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BENEATH A DEFORMATION BAND OF
RAIN; FORTUNATELY, THIS IS AN OUTLIER WITH NBM MEAN BRINGING
AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, BUT IT'S SOMETHING THAT
WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE FORECAST CHANGES NEED TO BE MADE FOR
MOTHER'S DAY.
WE SHOULD GET A MOMENT'S REPOSE FROM THE PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THEN GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVE PATTERN RESUMES WITH ONE/MORE SHORTWAVES GLIDING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, SPARKING RENEWED
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THE GENERAL TREND IS UPWARD IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT GIVEN OUR POSITION ALONG THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A
RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, WE REMAIN NEAR/IN THE STORM TRACK
WHERE PRECIPITATION AND FRONTS WILL AFFECT DAILY TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SITES
THROUGH TODAY AND THEN SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECTING CLEARING OF THE SKIES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO START BUT THEN BECOME NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS OF 7-10KTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER
DURING THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BUMGARDNER
DISCUSSION...BUMGARDNER
AVIATION...AUTEN
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