677
FXUS63 KILX 071751
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1251 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY (20%
CHANCE) A THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
MAY GENERATE LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
***** FEW GUSTY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN TOMORROW *****
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FAVORING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 2AM IS SLATED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT GIVEN THE SHORT (2-4
HOUR) DURATION THESE ARE OVERHEAD IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION WE SUSPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR SPOTTY FROST BY DAWN.
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE PARIS LINE. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THESE
SHOWERS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, DEEP MIXING SHOULD FAVOR
AN INVERTED V UP TO 750-800MB AND EVEN 75-150 HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE
THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. THIS SUGGESTS THE STRONGER CELLS MAY
PRODUCE THUNDER, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH, THOUGH
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS A LOW (LESS THAN 5%) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE, FAST ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE, WILL BRING
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF) MEAN RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCHES, BUT
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) AND THE LOCALIZED
PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN (LPMM) SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF OVER AN
INCH MAY OCCUR. IF THE NAM/RAP/GFS ARE RIGHT IN DEPICTING 40-55 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE, WE MAY ALSO HAVE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT ONCE AGAIN THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW (LESS THAN 5%).
***** MORE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING *****
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF IT, A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WILL WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 10-12 DEGC RANGE IF YOU BELIEVE THE LOW
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST (LREF) MEAN. THIS WILL BRING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE 70S, WITH A 40-75%
CHANCE (HIGHEST WEST) FOR 75+ DEGF FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
(NBM). THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY (20% CHANCE) A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT, NBM GIVES A 25-40% CHANCE (HIGHEST
SOUTH) FOR MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE
DISTRICT BY NOON SUNDAY.
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE NEXT WEEK, AS THE PRAIRIE STATE REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA.
GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT, BUT VIRTUALLY ALL OF
THEM HAVE ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SPARKING SHOWERS AND
STORMS EITHER OVER OUR AREA OR NEARBY NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY COME AT THE KPIA AND KBMI TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS
SAG NEAR INTERSTATE 74. THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE THAT MVFR
CEILINGS CREEP INTO THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE TRACKING AN AREA OF HIGH-BASED, GUSTY SHOWERS
THAT ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE HANDLING THESE PRIMARILY WITH A
VCSH MENTION, WITH A BRIEF PROB30 GROUP FOR PREDOMINANT SHRA AT
THE KPIA AND KBMI TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF.
FURTHER SOUTH AT KSPI, KDEC AND KCMI, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN RAIN FREE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BUMGARDNER
DISCUSSION...BUMGARDNER
AVIATION...MJA
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