534
FXUS63 KILX 071900
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
200 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM
THE I-74 CORRIDOR TONIGHT, TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-72 FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70, PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING MORE THAN A
HALF INCH OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-70 (60-70%).
- WHILE A TEMPORARY WARMUP TAKES PLACE ON SATURDAY, IT WILL BE
MORE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE GET A SUSTAINED
WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT):
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL THUS FAR, A 43 MPH WIND GUST
WAS NOTED AT PEORIA EARLIER AS ONE OF THE SHOWERS WENT BY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS, SUGGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL STRONGER GUSTS MIXING DOWN AT
TIMES. WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED PAST MIDNIGHT, CONCENTRATING ON
THE I-74 CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ONLY MAKING
MODEST PROGRESS SOUTHWARD, THE RAIN FOCUS WILL BE MORE ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-72/DANVILLE. A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
SBCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS TO TAKE WELL INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE RAIN TO CLEAR THE
SOUTHEAST CWA, ONCE THE SHORTWAVE FINALLY ARRIVES. FURTHER
NORTH, A DRYING TREND NORTH OF I-74 SHOULD BE TAKING PLACE AS
EARLY AS MID-LATE AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY):
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FINALLY BEGINS A
MORE WHOLESALE SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD. SYNOPTIC MODELS SLIDE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOWN THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM,
THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. BEYOND
THAT, THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT, BUT THE AIR MASS TRENDS MORE
TOWARD ONE OF THE PACIFIC ORIGIN. THIS SHOULD GET US TOWARD
MORE TYPICAL MID MAY TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK, WHICH LOOKS
TO PERSIST INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY COME AT THE KPIA AND KBMI TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS
SAG NEAR INTERSTATE 74. THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE THAT MVFR
CEILINGS CREEP INTO THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE TRACKING AN AREA OF HIGH-BASED, GUSTY SHOWERS
THAT ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE HANDLING THESE PRIMARILY WITH A
VCSH MENTION, WITH A BRIEF PROB30 GROUP FOR PREDOMINANT SHRA AT
THE KPIA AND KBMI TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF.
FURTHER SOUTH AT KSPI, KDEC AND KCMI, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN RAIN FREE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...MJA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page