016
FXUS63 KILX 081744
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE I-74
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING, TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-72 LATER TODAY.
THE HREF IS SHOWING A 100% CHANCE OF TOTAL RAINFALL GREATER
THAN 0.5 INCH AND 50% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF
I-70 FOR TODAY.
- WHILE A TEMPORARY WARMUP TAKES PLACE ON SATURDAY, IT WILL BE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN WE SHOULD GET A SUSTAINED
WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PULSING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 THIS
MORNING. THESE WILL COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH A
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PRESSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN WESTERN IL AND WILL TRAVEL EAST THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
AMOUNTS WON'T BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE OF RAIN TODAY BUT
THE HIGHEST AMOUNT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-70. THE HREF IS SHOWING A
100% CHANCE OF TOTAL RAINFALL GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH AND 50% CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF I-70 FOR TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WAVE OF RAIN TODAY MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SO SOME NUISANCE FIELD OR LOW LYING FLOODING MAY OCCUR WHERE
THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES
APPEAR TO BE BELOW 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, SO THAT IS
PROMISING.
THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF WARM UP
SATURDAY INTO THE 80S, THEN COOLING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE NEW
WEEK. A GRADUAL WARM UP LOOKS TO BE ON DECK THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST AFTER
TODAY. THE BEST OF THOSE CHANCES LOOK LIKE TUESDAY WITH 20-50%
CHANCES AREAWIDE. THERE AREN'T ANY SEVERE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT 8 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGIONAL TERMINALS,
MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-00Z, WITH GRADUALLY LESS COVERAGE WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE IN ATTENDANT
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH THERE IS LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AT KSPI AND KDEC BETWEEN 00Z-04Z.
OTHERWISE, CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE, WITH OVC/BKN COVERAGE TO START, THEN BECOMING SCT/FEW
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE,
WITH SUSTAINED AFTERNOON SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KTS, THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...MJA
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