909
FXUS63 KILX 090530
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING.
THERE IS A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE OF SEEING A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70, THOUGH TOTALS OVER AN INCH WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
- WHILE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARMUP ON SATURDAY (HIGHS REACHING
75-80 DEGREES), A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO KANSAS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE LAST FEW HOURS.
WITH TIME, THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS THE WAVES MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. BY
MIDNIGHT, THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70, BUT
EXITING BEFORE SUNRISE. HREF GUIDANCE HAS A >80% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN NEAR/SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH TONIGHT,
THOUGH THE LPMM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH JUST SOUTH
OF I-70.
THE NEXT WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO DROP INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL, THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, BUT WITH MORE TROUGHING SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 60S TO START THE NEW WEEK.
AS WE GO FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY EDGE ITS WAY EASTWARD. AS
THIS OCCURS, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE
INTERNATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A BLOCKING
PATTERN LATE WEEK, WITH LOW PRESSURE LOITERING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE, AND THE BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN WARM WEATHER
FROM LATE NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CIRRUS LAYER IN PLACE EAST OF THE IL RIVER. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OPENING THE DOOR FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AFTER EARLIER DAY RAINFALL. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL
AIRFIELDS BEGINNING AT 09Z FOR MVFR TO IFR VISBYS AND CEILINGS,
THOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO WORSEN CONDITIONS. FOG
SHOULDN'T LAST TOO LONG AFTER 12Z AS WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASE BY MID MORNING. WINDS BECOME BREEZY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS EASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...NMA
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