065
FXUS63 KILX 091806
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
106 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVER THE COMING WEEK, MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS, WITH DAYTIME PEAKS MOSTLY
REACHING THE MID-70S AND OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS NEAR THE LOWER
50S. IN CONTRAST, THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE A DRIER
PATTERN, WITH TOTAL RAINFALL LIKELY TOTALING AROUND HALF AN
INCH, FALLING BELOW TYPICAL WEEKLY AVERAGES.
- CONCERNS REGARDING BLOWING DUST ARE GROWING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH (50-80%) PROBABILITY OF WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH DURING THIS PERIOD. COMBINED WITH
ACTIVE AGRICULTURAL FIELD WORK AND RELATIVELY DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS, THESE WINDS COULD CREATE CORRIDORS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED VISIBILITY ON INTERSTATES AND HIGHWAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER MERIDIONAL
FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA, CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN, LIMITED INSTABILITY, AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ACCORDING TO RECENT HREF GUIDANCE,
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (40% OR LESS) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING. THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
LIGHT RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY UP TO ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH, APPEAR
TO BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINCY TO TERRE HAUTE, WHERE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.
AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISH THEMSELVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, A TRANSITION TO
COOLER, DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDING TO NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID-60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
A PRONOUNCED SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
LEADING TO A NOTABLE RISE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
(GEFS, ENS, AND GEPS) INDICATE A HIGH (60-80%) LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY EVENING, NBM RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND THIS TREND. QPF FROM BOTH THE NBM AND GRAND
ENSEMBLE SUGGEST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE TO ONE-QUARTER INCH BASED ON 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE RANGES.
HOWEVER, IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTERACTS WITH ANY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OR CONVECTIVELY-
ENHANCED POCKETS COULD DEVELOP. DESPITE THESE POSSIBILITIES,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST OR DUST STORM-TYPE CONDITIONS
MAY POSE A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEALS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL, AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MEAN WIND GUSTS
FROM THE GEFS, EPS, AND NBM CONSISTENTLY SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND PEAK AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. ANY RAINFALL OCCURRING TUESDAY EVENING MAY BE
INSUFFICIENT TO EFFECTIVELY SETTLE THE DUST. CONSEQUENTLY, WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MAY ISSUE BLOWING DUST HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS
VISIBILITY COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ALONG VARIOUS HIGHWAYS
AND INTERSTATES.
A SHIFT TOWARD A HOTTER, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A RIDGE
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE CONCLUSION OF NEXT
WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB DEEP INTO THE 80S.
MID-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG INFLUX OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A PERIOD OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
WITH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES POTENTIALLY BECOMING
EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS, WHICH MAY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES TO RETURN ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE SEVERITY
OF THESE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL RECEIVED LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN WI
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BREEZY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
WITH GUSTS PICKING UP TO AROUND 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
I-72 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE PRECLUDES
MORE THAN A PROB30 MENTION AT THIS TIME.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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