661
FXUS63 KILX 111710
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-MAY,
WITH WEEKLY RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY SUPPRESSED TO APPROXIMATELY
HALF AN INCH, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY STORMS.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, FEATURING DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE VICINITY OF 80 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE
UPPER 50S.
- BLOWING DUST CONCERNS ARE INCREASING FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30
MPH ARE LIKELY (60-100%) DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN RELATIVELY
DRY SOILS AND PEAK FARMING ACTIVITY, VISIBILITY ALONG MAJOR
ROADWAYS MAY BECOME NOTABLY IMPACTED DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TODAY. THEN, A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND, WE HAVE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES IN THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS. THE NBM IS SHOWING A 30-50%
CHANCE OF HIGHS BEING ABOVE 90 DEGREES NEXT SATURDAY WEST OF I-55
AND 30-60% CHANCE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY,
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY (UP TO 25-35 MPH). THE HREF HAS A 30-60% CHANCE
OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ON TUESDAY NORTH OF A MACOMB TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE. HOWEVER, NORTH OF I-72 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THEN A 20-50%
CHANCE (LREF) OF GREATER THAN 35 MPH WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY,
NORTH OF I- 70. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
BLOWING DUST WHERE THE TOPSOIL HAS RECENTLY BEEN DISTURBED BY
FARMING ACTIVITIES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH
40-70% POPS AREAWIDE AS A FRONT PASSES OVERHEAD. THE SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT,
FOCUSED ON DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD BE
PRETTY ISOLATED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
IL. THE GFS IS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 50 KNOTS OF BULK
SHEAR. GFS ALSO HAS A BIT OF A CAP IN PLACE, ~50-100 J/KG OF CIN.
THE OTHER MODELS ARE LOWER ON THE MUCAPE VALUES AND HIGHER ON THE
CIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH, BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE EXPECTED WHERE A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM MAY
MOVE THROUGH.
WITH THE INCREASE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE, ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, SUGGESTING WE COULD
BE ENTERING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN. THE CSU MACHINE
LEARNING IS HINTING AT SOME AREAS OF 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
DAYS 6-8. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE MODELS TO SEE IF
THERE COULD BE ANY THREAT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING; ULTIMATELY VEERING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...MJA
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