781
FXUS63 KILX 111946
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-MAY,
WITH WEEKLY RAINFALL LIKELY TOTALING LESS THAN ONE INCH.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING WEEKLY TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE WELL INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH ARE LIKELY (50-80%) DURING THIS
TIME. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND PEAK FARMING ACTIVITY,
VISIBILITY ALONG MAJOR ROADWAYS MAY BECOME NOTABLY IMPACTED
DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE HIGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
40S BY EARLY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ORIGINATING FROM THE PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST, LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PRECEDING A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT MULTI-MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE
A 60-80% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY EVENING. BASED ON
THE GRAND ENSEMBLE AND NBM INTERQUARTILE QPF, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, TYPICALLY FALLING BETWEEN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND 0.25 INCHES. ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL CAPPING KEEPS THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOW--SUGGESTING ANY CONVECTION MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED--ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
TOTALS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST. MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
PROBABILISTIC DATA FROM THE NBM, EPS, AND GEFS, WHICH SHOW A
50% OR HIGHER CHANCE FOR THESE GUSTS NORTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL LIKELY OVERLAP
WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND PEAK AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY. BECAUSE
THE RAIN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY EVENING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ADEQUATELY DAMPEN THE SOIL, NOTABLE VISIBILITY DROPS ALONG
REGIONAL ROADS COULD OCCUR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. FORECASTERS ARE
MONITORING THESE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE OVER
THE REGION, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN
BECOMING ESTABLISHED, A SHIFT TOWARD SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING FRIDAY, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BRING A WARMER AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO THE MIDWEST. THIS SHIFT IN THE
REGIONAL PATTERN MAY LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT CONVECTION, WITH
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TREND, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS
COULD REVIVE CONCERNS FOR BLOWING DUST IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EVENTUAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY,
HOWEVER, WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON THE TIMING AND ACCUMULATION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION RECEIVED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING; ULTIMATELY VEERING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...MJA
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