083
FXUS63 KILX 121055
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
555 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL THIS EVENING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING WEEKLY TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE WELL INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH OF I-70
THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH ARE
LIKELY. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND PEAK AGRICULTURAL
ACTIVITY, VISIBILITY ALONG MAJOR ROADWAYS MAY BECOME NOTABLY
IMPACTED DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
FOR HIGHS IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
THE NBM IS A BIT HOT ON THE TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW. THE LREF IS
SHOWING COOLER HIGHS, AS IN CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES RATHER THAN 90,
WITH 40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE IN THE LOW 90S.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY, WINDS COULD BE GUSTY (UP TO 30-40 MPH).
THE HREF HAS A 40-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ON TUESDAY
NORTH OF I-74. HOWEVER, NORTH OF I-70 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THOSE WINDS WILL
HAVE A LULL AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, BUT WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. THE GUSTS LOOK
TO START TO RELAX A LITTLE BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT COULD STILL BE
GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL LIKELY
OVERLAP WITH DRY, LOOSE SOIL AND PEAK AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY. BECAUSE
THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO ADEQUATELY
DAMPEN THE SOIL, NOTABLE VISIBILITY DROPS WHILE TRAVELING LOCALLY
COULD OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW. A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL IL FOR TODAY.
TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL THIS EVENING. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TODAY, FOCUSED ON DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND FOCUSED NEAREST TO THE FRONT,
WHERE MOISTURE, LIFT, AND SHEAR WILL BE BEST. THERE LOOKS TO BE
SOME CAPPING, SUGGESTING THAT THE STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED,
SUPPORTING THE HAIL RISK. DECENT MIXING ALOFT AND STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS WOULD SUPPORT THE DAMAGING WIND RISK. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH, BUT HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE EXPECTED WHERE A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE
THROUGH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEN WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND, SUGGESTING A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS. THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING IS HINTING AT SOME
AREAS OF 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAYS 5-8. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE MODELS TO SEE IF THERE COULD BE ANY THREAT
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL GUST UP TO 35 KNOTS TODAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE DAY, SPARKING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 23Z IN WEST-CENTRAL IL.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WHICH IS
NOTED IN THE PROB30 GROUPS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS REMAINING ELEVATED
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...COPPLE
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