943
FXUS63 KILX 131726
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1226 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS (20-30 MPH) MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST,
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. THESE IMPACTS
ARE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, BUT CAN OCCUR
ANYWHERE AGRICULTURAL FIELDWORK IS ACTIVE.
- A NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, COINCIDING
WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
TRENDING UPWARD FOR THE PERIOD SPANNING FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL IL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THEN AN ADDITIONAL MARGINAL
RISK IS IN PLACE FOR LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, UP TO 20-30 MPH, AGAIN TODAY. WHILE NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY'S WINDS, THERE COULD STILL BE A BLOWING DUST
CONCERN WHERE THE HIGHEST GUSTS HAPPEN, SINCE THE RAIN OVERNIGHT WAS
NOT ENOUGH TO ADEQUATELY DAMPEN THE SOIL. NOTABLE VISIBILITY DROPS
WHILE TRAVELING LOCALLY COULD OCCUR AGAIN.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE NBM IS STILL BIT HOT ON THE TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW, SO
LET'S LOOK AT THE LREF. THE LREF IS CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES RATHER THAN
90, WITH 40-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE IN THE LOW 90S.
WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND, SUGGESTING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SOME EXCITING WEATHER IS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A MCS-TYPE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE, LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE (SOUTH OF I-72), THE
EXACT TRACK COULD WOBBLE NORTH OR SOUTH STILL. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FROM SPC IS FOR VERY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE HAZARDS WE WILL WATCH FOR IS STRONG- TO- DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
SPC INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
DAY 3 (FRIDAY) AS WELL. INSTABILITY ISN'T IMPRESSIVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SO THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND MARGINAL.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE MORE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAKE HURON IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO CREATE SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A KPIA TO K1H2 LINE. THE MOST ROBUST CU HAS
BEEN FOCUSED ALONG/EAST OF I-57 WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN BKN-OVC AT
KCMI OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NAM
CU-RULE SUGGEST SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4000-5000FT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE N/NW WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 20KT, THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...COPPLE
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