406
FXUS63 KILX 141751
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1251 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINCOLN TO LITCHFIELD LINE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION FOCUSING
ON SATURDAY, THEN AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- AFTER A COUPLE MORE MILD DAYS, A PREVIEW OF SUMMER WILL ARRIVE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET UP OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. A CONTINUED
GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LREF SUGGESTS MONDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING THE WARMEST, WITH
60-80% CHANCE OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD, BRINGING A
MCS INTO IL. THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT, SO IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED AND
DECAYING. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IN PLACE FOR A LINE ALONG AND WEST OF LINCOLN TO
LITCHFIELD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL
ENTER WEST-CENTRAL IL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BE
EXITING SOUTHEASTERN IL BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING MAY HAVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOOKING AT A
RANGE OF MODELS, DECENT CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME,
WHICH MAY STUNT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STORMS. BULK SHEAR IS QUITE
WEAK (<30 KNOTS). MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
DURING THIS TIME FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP LIKELY WON'T HAVE THE SHEAR NEEDED TO
SURVIVE AND COLLAPSING STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
SATURDAY, ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL IL AND MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN IL. SUFFICIENT
DEEP- LAYER SHEAR OVER AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WOULD SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
BEYOND SATURDAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WAVES OF
SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE NEW WEEK. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT WILL NEED TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE
FIRST 3 DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE PINNING ANYTHING DOWN FOR
SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
PRIMARY AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING POTENTIAL
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF AN
OVERNIGHT STORM CLUSTER...WITH MOST SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK, THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER AT KPIA/KBMI/KCMI WILL REMAIN LOW. AS A RESULT, WENT
WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THOSE
SITES. FURTHER SOUTH, HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO THUNDER AT BOTH KSPI
AND KDEC BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z. THE SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE TERMINALS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WILL BECOME
S/SE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GREATER
THAN 10KT TONIGHT, THEN WILL GUST 20-25KT FRIDAY MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...BARNES
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