938
FXUS63 KILX 171502
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH MAY CREATE PATCHY BLOWING
DUST WHERE ACTIVE FIELDWORK IS ONGOING...PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A MASON CITY TO CHAMPAIGN LINE WHERE THE LIGHTEST
RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A DANVILLE TO SHELBYVILLE LINE ON MONDAY.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
DROP THE AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. 1430Z/930AM
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK BLANKET OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WHICH HAS BEEN ACTING TO SLOW
THE DIURNAL RISE OF TEMPS DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. BASED
ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH PROFILES, THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AM STILL EXPECTING
VERY WARM TEMPS, BUT HAVE LOWERED HIGHS MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE
80S. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING 25-30MPH AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE
GUSTY WINDS, THERE IS A MINOR CONCERN FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST
ALONG/NORTH OF A MASON CITY TO CHAMPAIGN LINE WHERE VERY LITTLE
RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS AND ISSUE
AN ADVISORY AS NECESSARY. FOR NOW, THINK MENTION OF PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IN THE FORECAST IS SUFFICIENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS DEPICT AN AREA OF
FESTERING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO WESTERN ILLINOIS. CONVECTIVE-
ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA,
FOLLOWING THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING. AS IT
DOES SO, THE FEATURE WILL DRAG THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MIDDAY.
WITH CENTRAL ILLINOIS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE
SOLAR HEATING AND MID-60S DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD A MODERATE HEAT
RISK, PARTICULARLY IMPACTING INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES OR THOSE LACKING SUFFICIENT COOLING AND HYDRATION.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT RISK, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ONGOING AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION, ISOLATED CHANNELS OF BLOWING DUST COULD BE A
DISTINCT HAZARD. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD LOCALLY AND ABRUPTLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE FIELD
WORK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES RAPIDLY BY MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMERGES FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS MAIN TROUGH, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL TRACK INTO THE CORN BELT, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PREFRONTAL STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE FUELED BY AN INFLUX OF NEAR-70 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ALONG A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ), COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
(EML). THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AMID AN
INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (30-40 KTS).
CURRENT PROJECTIONS FAVOR A LINEAR STORM MODE FOR MONDAY DUE TO
THE POOR CROSSOVER FLOW ANGLES BETWEEN THE 500-850 MB LEVELS.
CONSEQUENTLY, DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT, ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ
CORE POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA, LIKELY SUSTAINING
FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
TUESDAY'S OUTLOOK REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT OF MORNING CONVECTION. IF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
PERSIST, AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION COULD BE LIMITED, MAKING THE
SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL. THE HIGHEST RISK MAY ULTIMATELY
FOCUS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 72 AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS,
WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WHILE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION COULD BE
DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, THE
NEAR-PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF SHEAR VECTORS TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS
A RAPID TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR MCS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
MID-WEEK GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
COLD FRONTS EXIT SPEED. A SLOWER PROGRESSION COULD ALLOW FOR
LINGERING MOISTURE TO SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, A MORE
STABLE, COOLER POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER BOUNDARY
PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK, MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS
INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE TRACKS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
CYCLE WITH SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS
BEEN ADDED TO ALL SITES BEYOND 05Z AS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET CORE VEERS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
LESS PROBLEMATIC AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT WIND
BEGINS TO INCREASE.
OTHERWISE, A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE KPIA TERMINAL,
TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSRA ENTERING WEST- CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
UPDATE...BARNES
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...MJA
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