349
FXUS63 KILX 191809
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
109 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR MIDWEEK. THE
PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A ~1004 MB LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A FEW REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITH THE MOST PREDOMINANT ONE
STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY ROBINSON TO LAWRENCEVILLE AS OF 1 PM. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MOVING STEADILY TO THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE ALLOWED SBCAPE TO BECOME MODERATELY
STRONG. MORE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED CLOSER TO
THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH HIGH PWATS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE 12Z CAMS
HAVE SHOWN A SHIFT EASTWARD WITH STORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE FOCUS
BEING SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO FLORA LINE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE 19.12Z HREF 24 HOUR LPMM SHOWS LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 1-
2"+ OF RAIN OCCURING WITH STORMS, WHICH LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE HARDEST HIT RAIN AREAS FROM YESTERDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, REACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME
TO AN END AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL NUDGE THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
LIGHT SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES BACK INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
INCREASE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ULTIMATELY PUSH THE FRONT BACK
SOUTH OF HERE, PUTTING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIELD US BRIEFLY FROM PRECIPITATION, WITH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. A WESTERN
TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE CENTRAL US AND SPAWN SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
INTO THE MIDWEST STATES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
THE RETURN OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, OVERALL WEAK
FORCING SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE ANY CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS
BY KEEPING ANY CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF HERE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
FILL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ABOUT A 60-80% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT KCMI. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL AIRFIELDS WITH PERHAPS JUST A
LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...NMA
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