730
FXUS63 KILX 202308
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
608 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GLIDING ACROSS THE COLD FRONT HAS KEPT SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN PLACE NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 UP TO THIS POINT TODAY WITH
THE CHANCE CONTINUING FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF HERE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD IN
THE MIDDLE 50S. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR
QUICKER AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM A LAKE BREEZE IS FELT, LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND COOL ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL US LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING
A WETTER PATTERN BACK TO THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH, WITH THE FIRST BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD IN POTENTIAL RAIN
AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWING
ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN WEST-CENTRAL PARTS
OF THE STATE TO UPWARDS OF 1 INCH IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY WILL DICTATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THOUGH HIGH PWATS UP AROUND
1.5 INCHES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER RAINFALL RATES, ESPECIALLY IN ANY
STORMS. ISOLATED STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE FOCUSED IN EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IS
SHOWN. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH DRY PERIODS ARE LIKELY ON BOTH DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US IN ITS PLACE. AN UPPER LOW ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BECOME TRAPPED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK SETUP BY
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, SOARING BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
FEED OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTING INTO OUR AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW COULD PROMOTE MORE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY AT TIMES, WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD LARGELY
MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND DIURNAL CU ON THURSDAY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. RAISED GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z WHEN GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN WITH DIURNAL MIXING THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT COMMON THROUGH AFTERNOON.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page