646
FXUS63 KILX 211949
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IL ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTHEAST
IL. BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST IL WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL IL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SUMMERLIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THERE
WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS LOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST 3-5K FT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD NW
INTO CENTRAL IL, REACHING AREAS JUST SE OF I-55 AT MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 4.5-9K FT CLOUDS WERE OVER THE IL
RIVER VALLEY IN NW CWA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE TROF OVER MID TN AND
SOUTHEAST KY. MEANWHILE A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND RIDGING INTO IA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PARTS OF IL. BREEZY ENE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL
WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN
CENTRAL IL AND MID 60S IN CLOUDIER AREAS FROM LITCHFIELD TO
CHARLESTON/MATTOON AND PARIS SOUTHEAST.
LATEST CAMS HAVE WX SYSTEM EJECTING NE INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY BY SUNSET FRIDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TO SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS UP
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, ESPECIALLY BY FRI AFTERNOON AND
BETTER COVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE (THOUGH SUBSEVERE LEVELS). BREEZY ENE FLOW CONTINUES
FRIDAY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN SE IL AND LESS THAN QUARTER INCH IN
CENTRAL IL AND SOME SPOTS LESS THAN A TENTH INCH ESPECIALLY
FROM I-55 NW. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCES BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND FROM I-72 SOUTH ON
MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY. A REXBLOCK PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY DURING
NEXT WEEK KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND WILL
SEE PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SPC SEVERE WX OUTLOOKS ALONG CIPS AND CSU KEEPS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF IL THROUGH NEXT THU NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, NOT AS COOL TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S, WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY, UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S SUNDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY-THURSDAY, WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S DURING MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS
(THRU 18Z/1 PM FRI) ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. THOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS 2.5-3K FT MAY GET NEAR CMI AND DEC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST IL
FROM MTO SOUTHEAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS 4-6K FT AT DEC
AND CMI TO LIFT NNW TOWARD I-55 DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND TO
PIA BY SUNSET. PIA CURRENTLY HAS 8-10K FT BROKEN CEILINGS WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO EJECT NE FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AR BY 12Z/FRI AND WESTERN TIP OF KY
BY 00Z/SAT WITH A SURFACE TROF ARCHING INTO FAR SE IL AND
CENTRAL IN BY SUNSET FRI. BRUNT OF MOISTURE STAYS SOUTH/SE OF
CENTRAL IL THRU 18Z/FRI WITH SHOWER CHANCES FRI AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AT DEC AND CMI. ENE WINDS 12-17 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27
KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNSET RANGE
FROM 10-14 KTS AFTER 14Z/FRI WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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