024
FXUS63 KILX 220825
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
325 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE)
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
*** SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT ***
A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC HAS BEEN THE
DOMINATING WEATHER MAKER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...PROVIDING A COOL/DRY NE FLOW AND KEEPING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT BAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD AND A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD, SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK 1010MB
SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FROM LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN INDIANA
BY TONIGHT, THE RICHEST DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FLOW FROM THE
GULF INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...REMAINING MOSTLY E/SE OF THE
KILX CWA. NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE FROM AROUND 1.25
INTO THE 1.50-1.75 RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER
TODAY, SIGNALING THE LOCATION WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FOCUS. 00Z MAY 22 CAMS HAVE GENERALLY
SHIFTED THE GREATEST RAINFALL AXIS EASTWARD AND REDUCED AMOUNTS
FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON THE 00Z HRRR/NAM,
HAVE CONFINED RAIN CHANCES TO LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN HAVE PIVOTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20%) AS
FAR NW AS THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO INDIANA, 20 POPS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...WITH 50-60 POPS NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL RANGING FROM JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS ALONG/WEST OF I-55 TO AROUND 0.25 IN THE WABASH RIVER
VALLEY.
*** MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND FORECAST ***
ONCE THE INITIAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING/SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT
IN A MILD AND DRY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS
ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TRACKS EASTWARD
AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM,
SO THE SYNOPTIC MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS OF THE
AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF PRECIP. THE GFS AND GEM ARE BOTH FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS, BUT THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER. THE 00Z NBM FEATURED A BAND OF LIKELY POPS (60%) AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, BUT GIVEN MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
MOISTURE LEVELS, HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS A BIT SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S.
*** ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK ***
AFTER A DRY DAY ON MONDAY, THE NBM SPREADS RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY...THEN LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SET-UP NEXT
WEEK, FEATURING A POTENTIAL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE ALL MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS/THUNDER GRADUALLY PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST PARTS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, THE EXACT NORTHERN EXTENT REMAINS IN
QUESTION AS NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND SHARPENS. THIS
MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN WAVE AND EITHER KEEP ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIP ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTH...OR FORCE THE PRECIP
BACK SOUTHWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS
SHOWERY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IF
CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST. WHETHER SHOWERS REACH THIS FAR NORTH OR
NOT, THE LACK OF A STRONG SYSTEM AND OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR
WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST MACHINE
LEARNING ALGORITHMS FEATURE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE (LESS THAN A 5%
CHANCE) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CEILINGS (MVFR) WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE HIGHEST IN
THE SE (DEC/CMI) AND LOWEST IN THE NW (PIA), BUT LOW COVERAGE
(WIDELY SCATTERED) LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP ON STATION
WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF VICINITY SHOWERS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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