923
FXUS63 KILX 221840
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
140 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF I-55, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW.
- WHILE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS LIKELY TO BE
DRY.
- A WARMER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TOMORROW AND PERSISTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COMMON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY MID
EVENING. WHILE RAIN HAS BEEN MINIMAL IN OUR AREA THUS FAR, SOME
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF EFFINGHAM.
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING IN THE 60-70% RANGE
EAST OF I-57 INTO THE EVENING. THIS STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
GENEROUS RAIN PRODUCER, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
EXPECTED. WEST OF I-55, DRY BUT CLOUDY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY SATURDAY MORNING, SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD, REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY THINKING MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY IN OUR AREA,
BUT A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY SNEAK INTO THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
WAVE STILL APPEAR TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON MEMORIAL DAY, GRADUALLY
FORMING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN BY MID WEEK WITH UPPER LOWS
IN THE VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55 BY
MEMORIAL DAY, AND HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON
MUCH OF THE WEEK, THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
EXCESSIVE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, WITH
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO, THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS RAIN IS UNCERTAIN. NBM GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH MID WEEK (50-60%), BUT IS REASONABLE WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FAIRLY LARGE EXPANSE OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT MIDDAY,
THOUGH SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
KBMI-KSPI WEST. HOWEVER, CEILINGS SHOULD DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS.
LATEST HREF BRINGS 60-80% CHANCES OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ABOUT
KDEC/KCMI AFTER 06Z, WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET AS FAR WEST
AS KSPI-KBMI. MOST IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
STIFF EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET, BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATE IN THE PERIOD, MORE OF A
NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...GEELHART
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