672
FXUS63 KILX 222251
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
551 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF I-55, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW.
- WHILE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS LIKELY TO BE
DRY.
- A WARMER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TOMORROW AND PERSISTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COMMON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY MID
EVENING. WHILE RAIN HAS BEEN MINIMAL IN OUR AREA THUS FAR, SOME
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF EFFINGHAM.
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING IN THE 60-70% RANGE
EAST OF I-57 INTO THE EVENING. THIS STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
GENEROUS RAIN PRODUCER, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
EXPECTED. WEST OF I-55, DRY BUT CLOUDY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY SATURDAY MORNING, SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD, REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY THINKING MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY IN OUR AREA,
BUT A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY SNEAK INTO THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
WAVE STILL APPEAR TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON MEMORIAL DAY, GRADUALLY
FORMING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN BY MID WEEK WITH UPPER LOWS
IN THE VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55 BY
MEMORIAL DAY, AND HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON
MUCH OF THE WEEK, THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
EXCESSIVE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, WITH
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO, THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS RAIN IS UNCERTAIN. NBM GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH MID WEEK (50-60%), BUT IS REASONABLE WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS THIS EVENING FAVOR SITES
FALLING SOLIDLY INTO MVFR, WITH KPIA LIKELY THE LAST TO DROP
AFTER 06Z. PROBABILITIES OF IFR CEILINGS ARE HIGHEST AT KCMI
OVERNIGHT WITH MEDIUM PROBS AT KDEC. THESE TWO SITES WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER, THOUGH WITH VERY LOW
COVERAGE KEPT MENTION TO VCSH. A GRADUAL RISE IN CEILINGS IS
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING, AND MOST SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER
10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD, THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE RIDGE SAT AFTERNOON.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...25
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