743
FXUS63 KILX 230804
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE)
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
*** SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ***
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN DUE TO SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING WAVE. SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLOUDY THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. MEANWHILE
A SECOND SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH NAM SBCAPES
REACHING 1000-1500J/KG WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER AFTER 21Z/4PM.
AS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE WAVE LAST EVENING ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS,
CAMS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHING EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE, BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LLJ ADDS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS, HAVE CONFINED LOW
POPS (20-30% CHANCE) TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40-50%
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET: HOWEVER, ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN PRESENT
TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 WITH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS IN EXCESS
OF 0.25.
*** ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK ***
AFTER A DRY DAY ON MONDAY, THE NBM SPREADS RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY...THEN LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SET-UP NEXT
WEEK, FEATURING A POTENTIAL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS/THUNDER
GRADUALLY PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, THE EXACT NORTHERN EXTENT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND SHARPENS. THIS MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS
THE SOUTHERN WAVE AND FORCE ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP BACK SOUTHWARD
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS SHOWERY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IF CURRENT TRENDS
PERSIST. WHILE RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK, THE LACK OF A
STRONG SYSTEM AND OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL PREVENT
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS
FEATURE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING WILL DEPART
TO THE EAST WITH A COL AREA OVERSPREADING CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
ITS WAKE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
TO THE REMAINING CENTRAL IL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, AND SHOULD
SCATTER/LIFT BACK TO VFR EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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