900
FXUS63 KILX 231818
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
118 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WHILE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
WARM.
- THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE WORK WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE PROSPECTS OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY):
THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO BREAK, AS DEW POINTS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
NEAR/SOUTH OF I-70 WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS, BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE HAS
RESULTED IN LOW-MID 70S AT MIDDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PROMINENT UPPER LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG, WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. AS THESE
FEATURES EDGE EASTWARD, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO POP NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS CAPE'S REACH 1500 J/KG.
HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF SUBSIDING ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, BUT THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT CLOSE TO I-57 BY MID MORNING SUNDAY,
MOST OF THE LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM TONIGHT'S
TROUGH GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH SHOULD
LARGELY KEEP MEMORIAL DAY DRY IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY SOUTH OF I-70, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80, WHILE MID 80S ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE
SUNNIER NORTHWEST CWA. WHILE A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE NORTHERN UPPER FLOW, IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY):
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY, AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW
SHOULD LOITER OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA MUCH OF THE WEEK, AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WITH THIS
PATTERN, THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD
PUSH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY CAN MAKE MID WEEK. ECMWF ENSEMBLES
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH GETTING RAIN CHANCES AS FAR NORTH
AS I-80 OR SO, WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MORE MIXED ON HOW
MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SEE RAIN. NBM GUIDANCE REMAINS
ON THE WETTER SIDE, WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THE MOMENT. MORE OF A DRIER TREND IS
LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK, AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHS NORTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF
THE WEEK, IT SHOULD NOT BE UNUSUALLY WARM FOR THE END OF MAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LOWER SOME LATE WEEK WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE THINNING
OUT ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH KSPI WILL LIKELY TAKE THE
LONGEST TO SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS PROGRESSING SLOWLY WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT. INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE TSRA
POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...ERWIN
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