803
FXUS63 KILX 240845
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE)
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
*** LINGERING SHOWERS TODAY ***
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE ILLINOIS RIVER, ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE HRRR/RAP, THINK
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND
THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY 12Z/7AM, THEN ALONG/EAST OF I-57 BY
18Z/1PM. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER SOUTH OF
I-70 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIP FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM
0.10 TO 0.25 WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF GREATER THAN 0.25.
*** UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD ***
AFTER A DRY DAY ON MONDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...FEATURING A HIGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE THE HIGH
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN QUESTION
CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL SPREAD AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL GET SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD
LATER IN THE WEEK. A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL SPREAD STILL EXISTS AT
THAT TIME RANGE: HOWEVER, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CLEAR THAT
THE WETTEST PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT, SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
N/NE FLOW WILL PUSH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OZARKS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS (60-80% CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH LOWER POPS (20-40% CHANCE)
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK THESE WILL EVENTUALLY
BE DROPPED ONCE THE NBM CATCHES UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. WHILE
RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, THE LACK OF A STRONG SYSTEM AND OVERALL
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL PREVENT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST
MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS FEATURE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE (LESS
THAN A 5% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW WINDS AHEAD WILL TURN NORTHERLY IN ITS
WAKE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE, AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MEANWHILE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY DIPPING TO IFR NEAR CMI. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE TROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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