182
FXUS63 KILX 241707
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE)
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
*** LINGERING SHOWERS TODAY ***
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE ILLINOIS RIVER, ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE HRRR/RAP, THINK
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND
THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY 12Z/7AM, THEN ALONG/EAST OF I-57 BY
18Z/1PM. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER SOUTH OF
I-70 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIP FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM
0.10 TO 0.25 WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF GREATER THAN 0.25.
*** UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD ***
AFTER A DRY DAY ON MONDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...FEATURING A HIGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE THE HIGH
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN QUESTION
CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL SPREAD AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL GET SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD
LATER IN THE WEEK. A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL SPREAD STILL EXISTS AT
THAT TIME RANGE: HOWEVER, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CLEAR THAT
THE WETTEST PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT, SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
N/NE FLOW WILL PUSH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OZARKS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS (60-80% CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH LOWER POPS (20-40% CHANCE)
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK THESE WILL EVENTUALLY
BE DROPPED ONCE THE NBM CATCHES UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. WHILE
RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, THE LACK OF A STRONG SYSTEM AND OVERALL
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL PREVENT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST
MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS FEATURE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE (LESS
THAN A 5% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
BULK OF THE MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT
MIDDAY, THOUGH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAY RESULT IN
SOME BRIEF CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET FROM KDEC-KBMI EAST FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE AVIATION CONCERNS FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG POTENTIAL TOWARD 10-12Z AT
KDEC/KCMI. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY BELOW 5 MILES
IS ONLY IN THE 15-20% RANGE, SO WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF
THIS TAF SET AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
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