179
FXUS63 KILX 251719
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1219 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE)
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
*** PATCHY MORNING FOG ***
WHILE SKIES CLEARED AND MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXPERIENCED
CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DRYING YESTERDAY AFTERNOON,
THE E/SE KILX CWA WAS SLOWER TO CLEAR AND IS THUS HANGING ON TO
MORE MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING. 07Z/2AM OBS INDICATE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 3-6 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
BUT JUST 0-2 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH OF A DANVILLE TO TAYLORVILLE
LINE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS NEARLY CALM, PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE NO FOG
HAS YET BEEN OBSERVED IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS, THE LATEST REPORT
FROM TERRE HAUTE SHOWS 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. CAMS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO HAD ORIGINALLY SHOWN A BAND OF FOG AS FAR N/NW AS SPRINGFIELD
AND BLOOMINGTON, BUT THIS IS NOT COMING TO FRUITION DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR THERE. LATEST CAMS FOCUS THE FOG SOUTH OF I-72 AND
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE CURRENT OBS. AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES, AM EXPECTING A PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG I-70 TO
THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
*** MID-WEEK RAIN CHANCES ***
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES, A
QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK...FEATURING AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND A HIGH
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. AS A
VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DIGS SOUTHWARD,
IT WILL INDUCE STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS
E/SE, IT WILL EVENTUALLY STOP THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION HAS BEEN
AND CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP CAN SPREAD BEFORE
THE HIGH EVENTUALLY WINS OUT. THE 00Z MAY 25 MODEL SUITE IS
OFFERING A BLEAKER PICTURE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING AREAS
NORTH OF I-72 RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO RAIN. BASED ON THE TIMING
OF THIS PROCESS, HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
KILX CWA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS (20-30%) SOUTH OF I-70 BY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN FORCING
IS STRONGEST AND THE RICHEST GULF MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE BUILDING UPPER
HIGH TO THE NORTH, HAVE SPREAD LIKELY POPS (60-70% CHANCE) AS
FAR NORTH AS A PARIS TO TAYLORVILLE LINE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A NORMAL TO MACOMB LINE COMPLETELY DRY.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD, SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...THUS ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST
PROJECTIONS NOW SHOW RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.50 ALONG/SOUTH OF A
PARIS TO TAYLORVILLE LINE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER SOUTH
CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER.
AFTER THAT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES POOR FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE EVENTUAL BREAK-DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD SHOWN THE HIGH
WEAKENING AND A SHORT-WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY: HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUN KEEPS THIS FEATURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WHILE RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK,
THE LACK OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND OVERALL WEAK
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL PREVENT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. AS A
RESULT, THE LATEST MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS FEATURE LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES AM. A FEW DIURNAL CU ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 4 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE, INCREASING CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...ERWIN
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