804
FXUS63 KILX 260515
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BENIGN PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF MAY, WITH NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAT IMPACTS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
LAKE ONTARIO. AN UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN TX, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN CIRRUS
SHIELD EXTENDING ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS THE IL RIVER VALLEY (AS
OF 130PM/1830Z). A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS COVERAGE AND
THICKNESS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE,
SFC TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND 80F AS OF THIS WRITING, AND WILL
LIKELY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC FORECAST IS LARGELY ON
TRACK, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE, AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS/MIDWEST, A CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN US, AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE
IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP TUES NIGHT-WED, AND AN EARLY
LOOK AT CAMS SHOW UNINSPIRING PRECIP COVERAGE. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS, POPS HAVE DECREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, STILL
PEAKING AT AROUND 70% SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE
DURING THE DAY WED, BUT QUICKLY FALLING OFF TO LESS THAN 30%
NORTH OF I-72. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SHEAR PRECLUDE A
SEVERE STORM THREAT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. WHILE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO WEAK CLOUD LAYER
WINDS, GUIDANCE ALSO EXHIBITED A TREND TOWARDS LOWER PWAT
VALUES, REDUCING THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEEK TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND, AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS WEST, CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER FOCUS. THIS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THURS, WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOCALLY. THIS WILL LARGELY SHUNT
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT DRIER
DEWPOINTS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE CATCHING UP TO THIS TREND, WITH FORECAST
DEWPOINTS FOR THURS-FRI NOW IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, AS
OPPOSED TO MID 60S (WHICH IS WHAT YESTERDAY'S MODEL BLEND
DELIVERED). ULTIMATELY, THIS SFC HIGH SHOULD OFFER ANOTHER
STRETCH OF BENIGN, PLEASANT WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD RESULTING IN LIGHT SE/E WINDS, IF NOT VARIABLE AT TIMES,
AND VFR CONDITIONS. EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 7-10 KT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...ERWIN
DISCUSSION...ERWIN
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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