865
FXUS63 KILX 270838
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
338 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF I-72
TODAY...WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE
POTENTIALLY PICKING UP GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAINFALL.
- AIR QUALITY WILL BECOME UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY DUE TO HIGH OZONE
CONCENTRATIONS.
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
*** SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-72 TODAY ***
08Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT IS
LOSING SOME OF ITS MOMENTUM AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT
TRIGGERED IT PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO INDIANA. IN ADDITION,
THE SHOWERS WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A CONSIDERABLY DRIER/MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR WHERE CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S. CAMS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE BAND AND SUGGEST IT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A DANVILLE TO DECATUR LINE BY
DAYBREAK. AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAME AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
EXITING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE NOT
ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL
SEE RAINFALL, A FAVORED CORRIDOR FROM PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE MAY
SEE AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH. MEANWHILE NORTH OF I-72, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NEAR I-70...TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER.
*** POOR AIR QUALITY TODAY ***
ELEVATED OZONE LEVELS IN THE CHICAGO AREA WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY DUE TO WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ILLINOIS
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (EPA) INDICATES AIR QUALITY WILL
BECOME UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS ALONG/NORTH OF I-74. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WHICH SHOULD HELP DISPERSE THE OZONE AND IMPROVE AIR
QUALITY BY THURSDAY.
*** PROLONGED STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER ***
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS...FEATURING DEEP
UPPER LOWS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A
PERSISTENT RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS
WILL ENSURE ANY APPROACHING SHORT-WAVES WILL BE SHUNTED S/SW OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,
AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT NEXT TUESDAY
WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
THE MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN FOR THE CORRIDOR FROM DEC TO CMI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
AND SATELLITE LOOPS ARE INDICATING A NORTHWARD PROGRESSION TO A
AREA OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE
CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CMI GETTING INTO
THOSE CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO
LIMIT CMI RAIN/MVFR PERIOD TO JUST 10-12Z, REMOVING THE 09Z-12Z
PROB30 GROUP. DEC TIMING WAS LEFT INTACT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM 09Z TO 14Z. OTHERWISE, SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING. ANY REMAINING
LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BACK NE BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING, AS A COOL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-18
KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...SHIMON
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