566
FXUS63 KILX 281037
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
537 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THIS MORNING'S COMMUTE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE LINE.
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE)
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-74
CORRIDOR. WHILE A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S GRADUALLY
SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES, A CONSIDERABLY MOISTER
AIRMASS LINGERS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK:HOWEVER,
THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG BEHIND. THANKS TO NEARLY CALM WINDS AND
ONLY A HIGH/THIN OVERCAST, FOG IS FORMING IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY WHERE AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY
ALONG/SOUTH OF A PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
AND OBS AT BOTH ROBINSON AND LAWRENCEVILLE HAVE OCCASIONALLY
DIPPED TO BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 MILE OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS.
GIVEN TRENDS AND A CLEAR SIGNAL FROM THE CAMS, HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8AM. THINK THE FOG WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW, BUT MAY CREATE A DRIVING HAZARD FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING RURAL SPOTS.
AFTER THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES, AM EXPECTING A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH A HIGH/THIN CIRRUS OVERCAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S: HOWEVER, IT WILL NOT FEEL AS HOT AS
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE GUSTING 15-20MPH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURING DEEP UPPER LOWS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM OVER
THE MIDWEST. SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL ENSURE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY REMAINS W/SW OF THE REGION. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE PROMINENT WAVE VISIBLE ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM COLORADO TO TEXAS. AS THIS FEATURE PIVOTS
NORTHEASTWARD, IT WILL TRY TO PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWING THIS PROCESS OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM, BUT THINK PRECIP WILL
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO EFFINGHAM LINE FRIDAY
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY TRY TO PUSH TOWARD THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. AFTER THAT, THE 00Z MAY 28 MODELS ALL SHOW THE
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING AND DIGGING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, ESSENTIALLY SHUNTING THE OMEGA BLOCK A BIT
FURTHER WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE LOW, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S
TODAY, A RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
AND GUST 15-20KT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 5-10KT CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. A HIGH/THIN OVERCAST
WILL BE NOTED.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ056-057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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