845
FXUS63 KILX 281735
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE)
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-74
CORRIDOR. WHILE A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S GRADUALLY
SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES, A CONSIDERABLY MOISTER
AIRMASS LINGERS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK:HOWEVER,
THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG BEHIND. THANKS TO NEARLY CALM WINDS AND
ONLY A HIGH/THIN OVERCAST, FOG IS FORMING IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY WHERE AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY
ALONG/SOUTH OF A PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
AND OBS AT BOTH ROBINSON AND LAWRENCEVILLE HAVE OCCASIONALLY
DIPPED TO BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 MILE OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS.
GIVEN TRENDS AND A CLEAR SIGNAL FROM THE CAMS, HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8AM. THINK THE FOG WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW, BUT MAY CREATE A DRIVING HAZARD FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING RURAL SPOTS.
AFTER THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES, AM EXPECTING A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH A HIGH/THIN CIRRUS OVERCAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S: HOWEVER, IT WILL NOT FEEL AS HOT AS
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE GUSTING 15-20MPH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURING DEEP UPPER LOWS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM OVER
THE MIDWEST. SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL ENSURE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY REMAINS W/SW OF THE REGION. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE PROMINENT WAVE VISIBLE ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM COLORADO TO TEXAS. AS THIS FEATURE PIVOTS
NORTHEASTWARD, IT WILL TRY TO PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWING THIS PROCESS OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM, BUT THINK PRECIP WILL
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO EFFINGHAM LINE FRIDAY
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY TRY TO PUSH TOWARD THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. AFTER THAT, THE 00Z MAY 28 MODELS ALL SHOW THE
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING AND DIGGING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, ESSENTIALLY SHUNTING THE OMEGA BLOCK A BIT
FURTHER WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE LOW, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S
TODAY, A RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM FRI. FAIR WX DUE TO 1025-1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI DRIFTING SE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO FRI MORNING AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS. WILL SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUD BANDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BE MORE SCATTERED
TONIGHT, WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO SPI BY LATE FRI
MORNING. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUST 15-20 KTS MAINLY AT
BMI AND CMI THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS SUBSIDES AT SUNSET/01Z
WITH NE WINDS 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND ESE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS FRIDAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...07
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