227
FXUS63 KILX 011943
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
243 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20%) ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF I-72 INTO EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS
VERY LOW TODAY (LESS THAN 5%).
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MID JUNE,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. (30-50% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
CURRENTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL
AT MID AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. WARM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM LOWER 50S FAR NE CWA TO LOW TO MID 60S
FROM MACOMB TO LINCOLN TO MATTOON AND TERRE HAUTE SW. LATEST
HRRR MODELS AND SOME OTHER CAM MEMBERS STILL SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS
LINE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AT SUNDOWN AS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS SOUTH AND SW OF CWA
AND SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOKS KEEPS MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FROM FAR
SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHERN MO, SW KY AND SOUTH.
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WED, WILL BRING
NE FLOW OF DRIER MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S TUE INTO WED. WILL
ALSO SEE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO IL DURING MID WEEK
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 590 DECAMETER ON WED. LOWS
OVERNIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F, COOLEST NORTH OF I-74.
HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WITH SOME AREAS OVER
THE IL RIVER VALLEY REACHING MID 80S. SEASONABLY COOL LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S TUE NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 50S WED NIGHT.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND MUCH OF THU NIGHT,
WITH JUST 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW OF THE IL RIVER LATE THU
NIGHT. RETURN SSW FLOW ON THU TO START TO BRING BACK MORE HUMID
AIR LATE THIS WEEK. WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THU WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE
THIS WEEK WITH RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE INTO IL LATE THIS WEEK
AND INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION. CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NW HALF OF CWA ON FRIDAY AND OVER MOST OF CWA BY SATURDAY
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING IL FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING NEAR CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP CHANCES OF CONVECTION AROUND. HIGHS IN THE 80S
OVERALL FRI THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS WEEKEND AND UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S NEXT MONDAY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 9-15TH
HAS 50-60% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER IL WITH
PRECIPITATION TRENDING NEAR NORMAL WHILE PCPN TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL SE OF IL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS. A DECAYING MCS HAS PUSHED SE OF IL AT MIDDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES OVER CENTRAL IL. A BROKEN AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES OF 4-5K FT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD I-74 AND WILL
AFFECT BMI AND CMI THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY PIA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST IL LATE
TODAY. OTHERWISE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH SW ACROSS
CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 8-13 KTS. NE WINDS WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT, BUT
INCREASE BACK TO 8-13 KTS AFTER 14-15Z TUE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS
POSSIBLE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page