587
FXUS63 KILX 071115
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
615 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER KANSAS WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO IL BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL. THERE IS A 30 TO 70% CHANCE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL
TO EXCEED 1 INCH.
- SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT VERY
HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF VERMILION COUNTY SATURDAY
EVENING, INCLUDING THE DANVILLE AREA WHERE UP TO 6.4 INCHES OF
RAIN FELL IN BISMARCK AND THE DANVILLE AIRPORT, WITH AS MUCH AS
2-3 INCHES PER HOUR AT MID EVENING. RADAR MOSAIC CURRENTLY SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NE OF VERMILION COUNTY IL OVER NORTHERN
IN, IN NW IL BETWEEN PERU AND QUAD CITIES, SW OF A MACOMB TO
LITCHFIELD TO MARION LINE AND NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE, IL. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WAS FOUND OVER MO WITH CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE KC AREA. THE 08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN IL/IN NEAR I-80 AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUED OVER CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT SOUTH
TO SW WINDS. HIGH PW VALUES WERE 1.6-1.9 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IL IN WARM SECTOR FROM I-80 SOUTH.
BOUNDARY TO BE CLOSE TO NORTHEAST CWA TODAY WHERE BEST CHANCES
OF CONVECTION TO BE TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND ALSO
OVER WEST CENTRAL IL WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL KS THAT MOVES INTO IA/MO AS IT OPENS UP TONIGHT.
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK KEEPS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE OZARKS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AR AND SOUTHERN/SW IL SOUTH OF I-64 WHERE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE. WPC ERO DOES HAVE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO
BOUNDARY. VERY WARM AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S (NEAR 90F IN LAWRENCEVILLE). MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TO GIVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN
THE LOWER 90S. NOT AS BREEZY AS PAST FEW DAYS WITH SE WINDS 5-15
MPH SO NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SE IL APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY AND MON EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO IL MON
AFTERNOON. MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL TO OUR SW WITH CAPES
RISING TO 1500-2500 J/KG IN SW IL NEAR MO BORDER BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL RISK OVER SOUTHERN IL
SOUTH OF I-64 INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND WESTERN KY. BUT TROPICAL PW
VALUES RISING OVER 2 INCHES SUPPORTS WPC ERO SLIGHT RISK OVER IL
MON/MON NIGHT. HREF LPMM SHOWS POCKETS OF 1-3 INCHES OF PCPN IN
6 HOURS WITH EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF 3-5 INCHES. SEEING
WHAT HAPPENED NEAR DANVILLE AND INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IN
YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING, FELL THIS IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH
EVEN HIGHER PW VALUES POSSIBLE. MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
AROUND ON MON WITH KEEPS SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BUT HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES AROUND 90F WITH SOUTH BREEZES 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 15-25
MPH.
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST OF IL INTO IN/OH/KY
ON TUE THOUGH STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING TUE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN IL.
WARMER ON TUE WITH MORE SUNSHINE BY TUE AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER
80S EASTERN IL AND LOWER 90S IN WESTERN CWA, WEST OF HIGHWAY 51.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF I-57 WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. WE HAVE ISOLATED CHANCES OF CONVECTION
TUE NIGHT AND NEAR THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY ON WED. WED APPEARS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 98-104F, WARMEST OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY
WEST INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AREA. THIS WOULD BE JUST SHY OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN CWA.
FORECAST MODELS SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
SE OVER IL THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY BRINGING A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH MOVEMENT OF
COLD FRONT. SPC DAY 5 OUTLOOK HAS SLIGHT 15% RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER CENTRAL IL (ABOUT A COUNTY SOUTHEAST OF I-70) ON
THU/THU NIGHT, MAINLY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY WARM AND HUMID
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F. CONVECTION CHANCES TO
DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. LOOKS DRIER NOW ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MODELS DIFFER WITH SOLUTIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WX SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY SAT NIGHT. NBM POPS OF 20%
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (30% SAT NIGHT). TEMPS TRENDING COOLER
TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT SUNDAY ALONG WITH LESS HUMID
AIR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET HAVE DEVELOPED IN A NARROW
CLEAR SLOT FROM KGBG-KCMI EARLY THIS MORNING, AND A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS CORRIDOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER, THE MAIN PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS WILL
BE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH HREF PROBABILITIES BELOW
3000 FEET RANGING FROM 40-70%.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINS A
CHALLENGE, THOUGH HIGH-RES MODELS ARE MOST BULLISH ON THE PERIOD
FROM 18-24Z. A FEW ARE LINGERING THE ACTIVITY NEAR KPIA/KBMI
INTO EARLY EVENING AS WELL.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...GEELHART
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