355
FXUS63 KILX 100858
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
358 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY EVENING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 100 OVER SOUTHEAST IL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO TERRE HAUTE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
HEAT WAVE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL TODAY AND THU...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 90F TO
LOWER 90S. THIS HEAT COMBINED WITH MUGGY DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S TO GIVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S AND
LOWER 100S (100-105F) TODAY AND THURSDAY. HREF HAS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF HEAT INDICES RISING OVER 100F IN SOUTHEAST IL THIS
AFTERNOON HREF HAS A 30-60% CHANCE OF HEAT INDICES OVER 100F
FROM BEARDSTOWN TO SPRINGFIELD TO TERRE HAUTE SOUTH THU
AFTERNOON. THIS HEAT WAVE MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED HEAT RISK FOR
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND WE WILL BE APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105F IN OUT SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THU
AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU EVENING...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER IL THROUGH THU NIGHT
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IL TO REMAIN
IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS THROUGH THU EVENING
PROVIDING FUEL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS. THE
LATEST CAMS LIKE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND/WAVE OF CONVECTION
MOVING INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON, AND
ANOTHER WAVE/LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING FURTHER SE INTO CENTRAL
IL DURING THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING INTO
SOUTHEAST IL DURING OVERNIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
TODAY WITH MLCAPES OF 2-3K J/KG THOUGH MODEST BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 20-25 KTS (TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER). SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
DANVILLE TO TAYLORVILLE NW AND ENHANCED RISK FROM CANTON TO
PEORIA TO MINONK NW. DAMAGING WINDS ARE BIGGEST THREAT WITH
25-30% RISK OVER NW CWA INCLUDING LEVEL 1 FOR GREATER THAN 75
MPH WINDS. AREAS FROM I-55 NW HAVE 2-5% RISK OF TORNADOES AND
15-29% RISK OF LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO RISK OF LARGER THAN 2
INCH HAIL FROM RUSHVILLE TO GALESBURG NW. WI, EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN/NW IL ARE IN THE HIGHEST RISK OF STRONGEST STORMS. WPC
DAY1 ERO HAS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM I-72 NORTH
AND MARGINAL RISK SOUTH OF I-72. PW VALUES RISE TO 1.6-2 INCHES
TODAY. LPMM SHOWS A FEW SWATHS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN (LOCALLY
HIGHER) NORTH OF I-70 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING,
WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY DURING MID TO
LATE THU AFTERNOON, AND OVER REST OF CENTRAL IL THU EVENING,
GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST IL LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF STORMS WITH MLCAPES 3-4K J/KG
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-35 KTS AND LOWEST 1 KM SHEAR OF
15-25 KTS. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS ENHANCED RISK OVER CENTRAL IL
FROM MID THU AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING, WITH SLIGHT RISK IN
SOUTHEAST IL. DAMAGING WINDS IS GREATEST THREAT WITH 30-45% RISK
IN CENTRAL IL (HIGHEST IN KNOX, STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES).
THERE IS ALSO A LEVEL 1 FOR WINDS OVER 75 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA NORTH OF A PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. THERE
IS A LEVEL 1 FOR HAIL OVER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER NW HALF OF CWA
FROM RANTOUL TO LITCHFIELD NW. THERE IS A 5-10% RISK OF
TORNADOES IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA, INCLUDING LEVEL 1 FOR UP TO
EF2 TORNADOES FROM PITTSFIELD TO RANTOUL NW. WPC DAY 2 ERO HAS
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT NORTH
OF I-72 WITH 25% RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
NW OF THE IL RIVER.
COLD FRONT TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF IL DURING OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT,
WITH QUIETER, COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ON TAP FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN/SW CWA BUT MOST
OF CWA SHOULD CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
SATURDAY. BREEZY SSW WINDS TO BRING A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR BACK INTO CENTRAL/SE IL SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS IN CHECK. SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, STARTING SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW OVERALL FOR IL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK PER SPC DAY 3 AND 4-8 OUTLOOKS ALONG WITH CIPS
AND CSU-MLP OUTLOOKS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE
17-23RD HAS A 40-50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING NEAR
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH GUSTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TO ABOUT 20-25
KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERALL. HOWEVER, MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AFTER 00Z. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 40+ KNOTS AND A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. WILL TRY TO FOCUS ON A 3-4 HOUR
WINDOW FOR EACH SITE, BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN
LATER FORECASTS AS THE ACTIVITY EVOLVES.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...GEELHART
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