735
FXUS63 KILX 111932
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
232 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS EVENING (RISK LEVEL 4 OF 5). THE WINDOW FOR THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS WILL BE 4-10PM.
- WHILE THE RISK IS LOWER (LEVEL 2 OF 4), THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-72 AND WEST OF I-57 WHERE MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
- MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE)
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
***** SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS EVENING *****
AT 230PM, TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS WERE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID 70S, RESPECTIVELY AMIDST
SOUTHERLY FLOW, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION "ET" (MOSTLY EVAPORATION THIS
EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON), AND SUNSHINE. RAP MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-3500 J/KG - A
SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE SOUTH.
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOOST BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY AND REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN) THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL SWEEP THE
AREA WEST-EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. RAP/HRRR/NAM
SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL PEAK AROUND 4000-5000 J/KG WITH 35-45 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THAT FRONT, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
FORCING TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IL AND
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THIS HIGHLY VOLATILE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE
INITIALLY OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS (TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING
WINDS), WITH AN INCREASING WIND AND QUASILINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(QLCS) TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS GROW QUICKLY UPSCALE INTO BOWING
LINES. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WILL FAVOR PRECIP LOADING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE TALLER CORES WHICH WILL FEATURE MELTING HAIL,
WHILE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDE CAPE PROFILES WILL
ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR RIJ FORMATION IN BOWING SEGMENTS; THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR HIGH-END (75+ MPH) AND LONG-DURATION (20+
MINUTES) STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SWATHS OF
ENHANCED DAMAGE (TREES DOWN, SHINGLE DAMAGE, POWER OUTAGES). SPC HAS
ISSUED A LEVEL 4 OF 5, "MODERATE," RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, DRIVEN
BY WIND AND TORNADOES, WHICH COULD BE STRONG NORTH OF A MACOMB TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE. WINDS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS MAY GUST UP TO 40 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH, AS DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS FROM ANVILS AID IN
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT FROM A 40-50 KT LLJ (STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN IL).
***** LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING *****
WITH SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-72 AND WEST OF I-57 HAVING RECEIVED
OVER 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY (AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN DAYS PRIOR), THERE IS CONCERN THAT FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE WITH THE ONGOING TRAINING STORMS NORTH OF A ROUGHLY MACOMB TO
EL PASO LINE. 3 HOUR FFG IN SOME OF THESE AREAS IS UNDER A HALF AN
INCH, AND WITH VARIOUS CAMS ADVERTISING 1 HOUR RAIN RATES >1 INCH IT
MAKES SENSE THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR CASS TO DEWITT, AND
COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH, IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM.
***** LESS WARM AND MUGGY STARTING TONIGHT *****
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL TURN MUCH LESS HUMID AND,
WITH SOME CLEARING, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT WEST OF ROUGHLY I-57. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW SHOULD ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S, MAKING IT FEEL MUCH
MORE PLEASANT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA)
WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST SHOULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE - RESULTING IN A LOW (ALBEIT NONZERO) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY/NIGHT IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. BOTH SPC AND WPC HAVE US IN MARGINAL RISKS FOR EACH HAZARD.
BEHIND THAT SECOND FRONT, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH NBM
ONLY GIVING A 15-30% CHANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH 75 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO MODERATE GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
LIKELY IMPACTING KPIA VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY
00Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS, FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION
MAY CONGEAL INTO A BROKEN LINE BY MID- LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 02Z. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE INCREASED RISKS FOR BOTH HIGH WINDS BUT
ALSO LARGE HAIL AS THIS ACTIVITY PASSES SOUTHEAST.
WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF VCSH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, BUT ANTICIPATING QUICK IMPROVEMENT INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.
KEY MESSAGES...BUMGARDNER
DISCUSSION...BUMGARDNER
AVIATION...GEELHART
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