869
FXUS63 KILX 121744
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RELIEF FROM THE VERY HOT AIR WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARRIVES TODAY. HIGHS WILL WIDELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S TODAY.
- MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (70-90% CHANCE)
SATURDAY, WITH A LEVEL 2 OF 5 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3
OF 5)OF SEVERE WEATHER AS FAR EAST AS THE STL METRO, TOUCHING
SCOTT COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WELL A PEACEFUL DAY OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY. MUCH LESS
HUMID AIR HAS ARRIVED AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT PUSHED OUT THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS. WE GET RELIEF FROM THE VERY HOT AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STARTING TODAY. HIGHS WILL WIDELY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
THE BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERE WEATHER
RETURNS SATURDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL SATURDAY. THE SPC HAS ALL OF
CENTRAL IL IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) WITH THE ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) AS FAR EAST AS THE STL METRO, TOUCHING SCOTT COUNTY.
THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING CONVECTION FROM A POSSIBLE REMNANT
MCV RESULTING FROM A DECAYING MCS TRAVELING ACROSS MO OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONVECTION IS QUITE LOW, AS IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS OVER 24 HOURS OUT. THE
MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN IS THE DAMAGING WIND RISK AS A BOWING
QLCS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DCAPE IS
AROUND 800-1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND QLCS TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE PRETTY STEEP (7-8
C/KM). BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH,
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE
LAST WEEK. SOME FORECAST SOUNDING HAS A LONG, SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE TO THEM WITH PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
BEYOND SATURDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
GIVING US A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HOT AND ACTIVE WEATHER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S BY MIDWEEK INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
HOWEVER, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AOA 12,000FT
IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
ON THE NOSE OF THE NOCTURNAL JET ACROSS KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT, AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY,
SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT THE TAF SITES REMAINS POOR. HAVE
OPTED TO LOWER CLOUD BASES AT ALL SITES AND INTRODUCE VCSH AT
KSPI/KDEC AFTER 14Z/15Z ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT SATURDAY
MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...BARNES
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