736
FXUS63 KILX 130535
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A PEORIA TO MATTOON
LINE...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A MILD/DRY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR THIS EVENING:
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED LATE. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
INTERACT WITH A 40-45KT NOCTURNAL 850MB JET TO TRIGGER CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD, IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND WILL THEREFORE BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE. WHILE SOME MODELS SUGGEST COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS,
OTHERS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 12KM NAM INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20%)
ALONG/SOUTH OF A MACOMB TO MATTOON LINE FROM MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED, THE NAM IS INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF
70+ DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI. WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-45KT, A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO THE N/NW OF THE KILX
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY AN ATTENDANT
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND RISK. MUCAPE VALUES RAPIDLY DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET, SO THE EXACT EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE RISK IS UNCERTAIN. THE UPDATED DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS SUBSEQUENTLY PULLED THE RISK TO THE SOUTHWEST,
DROPPING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A PEORIA TO MATTOON LINE
BACK INTO THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) CATEGORY. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS SHOWING THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST
LLJ FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OZARKS, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AM THEREFORE EXPECTING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO SPILL INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY AS FAR EAST AS THE I-55 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY PUSH
INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A PERIOD OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. AFTER THAT, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
COME INTO THE PICTURE PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY: HOWEVER,
MOST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
IN THE EXTENDED HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. HIGH
CIRRUS WILL BE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT BUT SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE SITES IN THE MORNING,
BUT NOT LASTING LONG. THE MAIN THREAT STILL LOOKS LIKE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES
ACROSS ALL SITES. HOWEVER, HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING AND
DECREASING TREND, SO HAVE KEPT VIS AND CIG IN VFR CATEGORY
INSTEAD OF MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH AFTER GUSTS OF 20KTS OR MORE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...AUTEN
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