948
FXUS63 KILX 131056
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
556 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A HENRY TO
CHARLESTON TO OLNEY LINE... WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- BEYOND TONIGHT, A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HOT AND ACTIVE
WEATHER ARRIVES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN IL TODAY. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
AREAS WEST OF A HENRY TO CHARLESTON TO OLNEY LINE. THERE COULD BE
SOME MORNING CONVECTION FROM A DECAYING MCS TRAVELING ACROSS MO
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING SHOWERS/T'STORMS IS QUITE LOW
AS THE SHORT-RANGE, CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE HRRR HAS SOME SHOWERS/T'STORMS SOUTH OF I-74/ WEST OF I-
57 BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE NAMNEST KEEPS THE MORNING ROUND OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN TODAY IS THE
DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SOME SMALL
TO NEAR SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. MUCAPE VALUES ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG, BUT THE INSTABILITY QUICKLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET. DCAPE IS AROUND 800-1200 J/KG. BULK SHEAR OF 35-45
KNOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST WEEK AND MANY RIVERS ARE ALREADY IN
FLOOD. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE TO
THEM WITH PWATS OF 1.6-2.0 INCHES. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE 2 ROUNDS, BASED OFF THE HRRR. ROUND ONE IS
FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-74, MOVING EAST STARTING AT 17Z, AND EXITING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 00Z. THE SECOND ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AT 00Z, EXITING AROUND 10Z TOMORROW MORNING.
BEYOND TONIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
GIVING US A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HOT AND ACTIVE WEATHER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S BY MIDWEEK INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES (70-90%) ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR SPI AND DEC, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BY LATE AFTERNOON, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH, IMPACTING EACH SITE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, EXITING CMI BY 10Z. USING PROB30S AS THE GUIDANCE STILL
DOESN'T AGREE WITH HOW THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL PLAY OUT. THE
TIMING LEANS MORE PESSIMISTIC.
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE 12Z PERIOD. BORDERLINE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN EARLY TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS TO THE EAST. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE
FRONT AT EACH SITE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...COPPLE
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